Trump's 2028 Run and Midterm Control Priced In
J.D. Vance is the 40¢ frontrunner for the 2028 GOP nomination, while Democrats are slight underdogs to hold the Senate in 2026 at 44¢. The midterm elections are shaping up to be a critical test of political power.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will J.D. Vance be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: J.D. Vance
40¢Will Democrats win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Democratic Party
44¢Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
81¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?: Democratic party
65¢Who will win the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?: Russell Fry
63¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Vance is the 40¢ frontrunner for the 2028 GOP nomination, while Democrats are slight underdogs to hold the Senate in 2026 at 44¢.
- 02
The midterm elections are shaping up to be a critical test of political power.
- 03
The prediction markets are already pricing in the next presidential cycle.
Full analysis
The prediction markets are already pricing in the next presidential cycle. J.D. Vance (KXPRESNOMR-28-JDV) is the clear favorite for the 2028 Republican nomination at 40¢, with significant volume of 96,048. This suggests strong market confidence in his position as Trump's heir apparent. On the other hand, the 2026 midterms are a tight race. Republicans are favored to win control of the Senate at 55¢ (CONTROLS-2026-R), but Democrats are heavily favored to hold the House at 81¢ (CONTROLH-2026-D). This split control scenario is the most likely outcome. The South Carolina Senate special primary (KXSCRSENS-26-RFRY) and the Maine Senate race (SENATEME-26-D) are key battlegrounds to watch. The margin of victory in these races (KXMIDTERMMOV-MESEND-) will be crucial for determining the political landscape heading into 2028.
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