Midterm Control Markets Active: Senate Tossup, House Leans Democratic
Republicans hold a 60¢ advantage in the Senate control market, while Democrats are favored to win the House at 81¢. Key battleground races like Texas (58¢ R), Maine (51¢ D), and Georgia (53¢ R for Governor) show tight margins. The combination market shows a 39¢ chance of unified Democratic control, reflecting genuine uncertainty.
Cross-market probability snapshot
Will Republicans win the U.S. Senate in 2026?: Republican Party
55¢Will Democrats win the House in 2026?: Democratic Party
82¢Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?: Ken Paxton
57¢Will Democratics win the Senate race in Maine?: Democratic party
62¢Will the Republican party win the governorship in Georgia: Rick Jackson
51¢Each row is a contract priced as a YES probability. Bars are tinted emerald in the >50% band, zinc otherwise. Hover or open in /markets for live orderbook data.
Key takeaways
- 01
Republicans hold a 60¢ advantage in the Senate control market, while Democrats are favored to win the House at 81¢.
- 02
Key battleground races like Texas (58¢ R), Maine (51¢ D), and Georgia (53¢ R for Governor) show tight margins.
- 03
The combination market shows a 39¢ chance of unified Democratic control, reflecting genuine uncertainty.
Full analysis
The 2026 midterm control markets are seeing robust volume, with the Senate control binary (KXCONTROLS-2026-R) trading at 60¢ for Republicans on $33k volume. The House control market (CONTROLH-2026-D) shows Democrats at 81¢, suggesting traders anticipate a Democratic wave in the lower chamber. The power combo market (KXBALANCEPOWERCOMBO) offers more nuance: Republican House + Democratic Senate at 39¢, Democratic House + Democratic Senate also at 39¢, and the Republican sweep at just 17¢. Individual Senate races are heavily traded — Texas (SENATETX-26-R) at 58¢, Maine (SENATEME-26-D) at 51¢, and Alaska (SENATEAK-26-D) at 56¢. Governor races show Georgia (GOVPARTYGA-26-R) at 53¢ and California (GOVPARTYCA-26-D) at 91¢. The primary margins market for Colorado's Senate race (KXPRIMARYMOV-SENATEC) is also active at 98¢ for Hickenlooper winning by a wide margin, with $214k volume. These markets will intensify as the primary season heats up.
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Source markets at a glance
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