SimpleFunctions
kalshiOutcome slate105 markets

Will 21 Savage have a #1 album this year

event base · KX1ALBUM

By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 20 Aug 2026Methodology
24h volume
$1.7K
Constituents
105
Distinct tenors
1
Top P(YES)
98.0%
KATSEYE

Outcome probabilities

105 contracts at one resolution date

Analysis

The prediction market exhibits a flat curve structure across all 105 constituent markets, with every contract sharing an identical tenor of 129 days to resolution on 26 December. Within this single tenor bucket, YES probabilities display extreme heterogeneity, ranging from 1.0% (BEB, BIG, CAM, CHR, DAN, DAV, ICE, JAS, JOH, KAR, KHA, KIDC, MARO) to 98.0% (KAT). The median probability across the market sits substantially lower than the highest-priced contracts, with most markets clustered between 1.0% and 10.0%. The cheapest YES probabilities are concentrated among the 1.0% markets, while the most expensive outliers—KAT at 98.0%, ENH at 76.0%, BEY and DAH both at 60.0%—command dramatically higher prices. This distribution suggests the market is not pricing a uniform event but rather evaluating 105 distinct binary outcomes within the same event family. The flat tenor structure prevents any inference about temporal expectations regarding event timing, since all markets resolve simultaneously on the same date. Instead, the wide probability dispersion reveals the market's differentiation among specific outcomes within the KX1ALBUM event family. The concentration of volume in high-probability contracts (KAT, ENH, BEY) combined with substantial trading activity in mid-range probabilities (KEN at 30.0%, BAB at 23.0%) indicates active price discovery around multiple competing scenarios. The prevalence of 1.0% and near-zero-volume contracts suggests many outcomes are considered highly unlikely, while the market allocates meaningful probability mass to a smaller subset of favored outcomes. This structure reflects

Generated 8/20/2026 · anthropic/claude-haiku-4.5

Constituent markets

105 kalshi contracts

MarketTenorP(YES)Vol 24h
Will KATSEYE have a #1 album this year?: KATSEYE4mo98.0%$6
Will ENHYPEN have a #1 album this year?: ENHYPEN4mo93.0%$227
Will Rod Wave have a #1 album this year?: Rod Wave4mo81.0%$0
Will Beyoncé have a #1 album this year?: Beyoncé4mo60.0%$5
Will Post Malone have a #1 album this year?: Post Malone4mo57.0%$0
Will Travis Scott have a #1 album this year?: Travis Scott4mo36.0%$174
Will Kendrick Lamar have a #1 album this year?: Kendrick Lamar4mo30.0%$7
Will SZA have a #1 album this year?: SZA4mo30.0%$2
Will Tate McRae have a #1 album this year?: Tate McRae4mo28.0%$0
Will Sabrina Carpenter have a #1 album this year?: Sabrina Carpenter4mo26.0%$11
Will Lil Uzi Vert have a #1 album this year?: Lil Uzi Vert4mo26.0%$0
Will Lil Baby have a #1 album this year?: Lil Baby4mo23.0%$1
Will Justin Bieber have a #1 album this year?: Justin Bieber4mo22.0%$0
Will Lana Del Rey have a #1 album this year?: Lana Del Rey4mo21.0%$0
Will Victoria Monet have a #1 album this year?: Victoria Monet4mo21.0%$100
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 album this year?: Olivia Dean4mo20.0%$1
Will The Weeknd have a #1 album this year?: The Weeknd4mo19.0%$0
Will Selena Gomez have a #1 album this year?: Selena Gomez4mo18.0%$0
Will Billie Eilish have a #1 album this year?: Billie Eilish4mo16.0%$0
Will Nicki Minaj have a #1 album this year?: Nicki Minaj4mo16.0%$0
Will sombr have a #1 album this year?: sombr4mo16.0%$0
Will Doechii have a #1 album this year?: Doechii4mo15.0%$5
Will Megan Thee Stallion have a #1 album this year?: Megan Thee Stallion4mo14.0%$0
Will Lil Wayne have a #1 album this year?: Lil Wayne4mo14.0%$0
Will Eminem have a #1 album this year?: Eminem4mo13.0%$0
Will Lady Gaga have a #1 album this year?: Lady Gaga4mo13.0%$3
Will Rihanna have a #1 album this year?: Rihanna4mo12.0%$25
Will Chappell Roan have a #1 album this year?: Chappell Roan4mo10.0%$0
Will Coldplay have a #1 album this year?: Coldplay4mo10.0%$0
Will Young Thug have a #1 album this year?: Young Thug4mo10.0%$0
Will Frank Ocean have a #1 album this year?: Frank Ocean4mo9.0%$0
Will Kanye West / Ye have a #1 album this year?: Kanye West / Ye4mo9.0%$28
Will Leon Thomas have a #1 album this year?: Leon Thomas4mo9.0%$0
Will NF have a #1 album this year?: NF4mo9.0%$0
Will Alex Warren have a #1 album this year?: Alex Warren4mo8.0%$0
Will Dua Lipa have a #1 album this year?: Dua Lipa4mo8.0%$0
Will Polo G have a #1 album this year?: Polo G4mo8.0%$0
Will YoungBoy Never Broke Again have a #1 album this year?: YoungBoy Never Broke Again4mo8.0%$0
Will Dahi have a #1 album this year?: Dahi4mo7.0%$0
Will Lola Young have a #1 album this year?: Lola Young4mo7.0%$0
Will Rauw Alejandro have a #1 album this year?: Rauw Alejandro4mo7.0%$0
Will Anuel AA have a #1 album this year?: Anuel AA4mo6.0%$0
Will Bryson Tiller have a #1 album this year?: Bryson Tiller4mo6.0%$0
Will Shawn Mendes have a #1 album this year?: Shawn Mendes4mo6.0%$0
Will Benson Boone have a #1 album this year?: Benson Boone4mo5.0%$0
Will BLACKPINK have a #1 album this year?: BLACKPINK4mo5.0%$0
Will Calvin Harris have a #1 album this year?: Calvin Harris4mo5.0%$0
Will Joji have a #1 album this year?: Joji4mo5.0%$0
Will The Marías have a #1 album this year?: The Marías4mo5.0%$0
Will mgk have a #1 album this year?: mgk4mo5.0%$0
Will Offset have a #1 album this year?: Offset4mo5.0%$0
Will Sia have a #1 album this year?: Sia4mo5.0%$0
Will 2 Chainz have a #1 album this year?: 2 Chainz4mo4.0%$0
Will Daft Punk have a #1 album this year?: Daft Punk4mo4.0%$0
Will Kali Uchis have a #1 album this year?: Kali Uchis4mo4.0%$0
Will Linkin Park have a #1 album this year?: Linkin Park4mo4.0%$0
Will Luke Combs have a #1 album this year?: Luke Combs4mo4.0%$0
Will PARTYNEXTDOOR have a #1 album this year?: PARTYNEXTDOOR4mo4.0%$0
Will Pharrell Williams have a #1 album this year?: Pharrell Williams4mo4.0%$0
Will PinkPantheress have a #1 album this year?: PinkPantheress4mo4.0%$0
Will ROSALÍA have a #1 album this year?: ROSALÍA4mo4.0%$0
Will Charlie Puth have a #1 album this year?: Charlie Puth4mo3.0%$0
Will Fred again.. have a #1 album this year?: Fred again..4mo3.0%$0
Will J Balvin have a #1 album this year?: J Balvin4mo3.0%$0
Will Kacey Musgraves have a #1 album this year?: Kacey Musgraves4mo3.0%$0
Will The Kid LAROI have a #1 album this year?: The Kid LAROI4mo3.0%$0
Will Kodak Black have a #1 album this year?: Kodak Black4mo3.0%$0
Will Lewis Capaldi have a #1 album this year?: Lewis Capaldi4mo3.0%$0
Will Mariah Carey have a #1 album this year?: Mariah Carey4mo3.0%$0
Will Quavo have a #1 album this year?: Quavo4mo3.0%$0
Will Charli xcx have a #1 album this year?: Charli xcx4mo3.0%$0
Will Lil Yachty have a #1 album this year?: Lil Yachty4mo3.0%$0
Will Childish Gambino have a #1 album this year?: Childish Gambino4mo2.0%$0
Will Ed Sheeran have a #1 album this year?: Ed Sheeran4mo2.0%$0
Will Fall Out Boy have a #1 album this year?: Fall Out Boy4mo2.0%$0
Will Logic have a #1 album this year?: Logic4mo2.0%$0
Will Ozuna have a #1 album this year?: Ozuna4mo2.0%$0
Will Sam Smith have a #1 album this year?: Sam Smith4mo2.0%$125
Will Swae Lee have a #1 album this year?: Swae Lee4mo2.0%$20
Will USHER have a #1 album this year?: USHER4mo2.0%$0
Showing top 80 by P(YES) of 105 constituents.

How to read this page

An outcome slate is a set of mutually-exclusive contracts that all settle on the same date. Their YES probabilities form a distribution over which outcome the market expects. Probabilities should roughly sum to 100% minus the venue’s overround.

Curve construction: each constituent contract is identified by its venue event_id (KX1ALBUM on kalshi). Tenor is computed from the contract’s close_time minus snapshot time, rounded to days. We do not interpolate between tenors — every plotted point is a real, traded contract. Outcome-slate pages show price-as-probability for mutually-exclusive contracts; term-structure pages show price-as-probability vs days-to-resolution for the same underlying event.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: Thu, 20 Aug 2026 06:24:14 GMT.