SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

World prediction markets — geopolitics, conflicts, treaties.

41 Kalshi-classified live questions across 41 Kalshi contracts, $1,921 of 24h volume. 10 sit in coin-flip territory. 1 markets moved 5cents+ in the last 24h. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=world.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/world
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=world
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 22 Jun 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100+56.0
Vol Flow$1.9K-56%
min $498max $9.4K
Breadth100%+133.3pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 05:00 UTC
Jun 15past 7d · UTCJun 22 · 04:23

Live contracts

41

24h volume

$1.9K

# series in cat

0

curated GO series

Contested

24%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

0

Top mover

-5¢

KXTRUMPSTATES-27JAN01-CA

World — liquidity topography (top 6 of 41 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 0.4 → 0.4/h

$10$100$1,0001d7d30d90d365d0.40.40.4

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in World

Showing top 20 of 41

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026?: Before 202731¢
IY 423%Cliff 2Edge —RVol 319%Resid —$1.9K
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 45013¢
IY 190%Cliff 7Edge —RVol —Resid —$17
Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?: Mars15¢
IY 7.7%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$17
Will Donald Trump visit Minnesota before Jan 1, 2027?: Minnesota47¢
IY 213%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$15
Will Donald Trump visit California before Jan 1, 2027?: California65¢
IY 102%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Will Pope Leo XIV visit Portugal before Jan 1, 2027?: Portugal19¢
IY 804%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$1
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Donald Trump visit Colorado before Jan 1, 2027?: Colorado28¢
IY 485%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before Jan 1, 2027?: Alaska22¢
IY 669%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by >25bps at their July 2026 meeting?: Hike >25bps49¢
IY >999%Cliff 1Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will any country join the EU by 2030?: Any country69¢
IY 13%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 44080¢
IY 7.1%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate3¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps9¢
IY >999%Cliff 10Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 4555¢
IY 538%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 4603¢
IY 916%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate82¢
IY 111%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their September 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps16¢
IY >999%Cliff 5Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Elon Musk join Instagram before Jul 4, 2026?: Before Jul 4, 20263¢
IY >999%Cliff 32Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
41 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

Biggest movers, 24h, in World

From market_changes
6h agoKalshi
Will Donald Trump visit California before Jan 1, 2027?: California
64¢69→64 (-5)
open →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 22 Jun 2026 04:38:42 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=world →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=world →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →