SimpleFunctions

Markets · Category

World prediction markets — geopolitics, conflicts, treaties.

13 Kalshi-classified live questions across 13 Kalshi contracts, $317 of 24h volume. 1 sit in coin-flip territory. Refreshed every 15 minutes.

Polymarket-side classification backfill is in flight — until shipped, see the cross-venue picture under /odds?category=world.

Category JSON twin
GET/api/public/markets/category/world
Screen filter
GET/api/public/screen?category=world
By SimpleFunctions· Last verified 24 Aug 2026Methodology
Disagreement≥100+28.0
Vol Flow$317-87%
min $312max $4.3K
Breadth0%-100.0pp
min -100%max 100%
Activity—
warming up — first reading at 06:45 UTC
Aug 17past 6d · UTCAug 24 · 06:23

Live contracts

13

24h volume

$317

# series in cat

0

curated GO series

Contested

8%

30-70% prob

SF thesis coverage

1

Top mover

—

no 24h moves

World — liquidity topography (top 4 of 13 markets)

X = time-to-resolution (log). Y = 24h volume (log). Color = price changes / hour. Range: 0.7 → 1.1/h

$10$1001d7d30d90d1.10.90.7

Hover for ticker detail; click to open the per-market page. full screener →

Top markets in World

Showing top 13 of 13

Sortable across every numeric column — IY / Cliff / Edge / RVol / Resid / 24h vol — all bounded for readability, raw on hover.

Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps7¢
IY >999%Cliff 13Edge +20¢RVol >999%Resid —$112thesis ◆
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps5¢
IY >999%Cliff 19Edge —RVol —Resid —$109
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate87¢
IY 84%Cliff 7Edge —RVol 241%Resid —$54
Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed in 2026?: Before 202714¢
IY >999%Cliff 6Edge —RVol >999%Resid —$42
Will any country join the EU by 2030?: Any country70¢
IY 13%Cliff 2Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Hike 25bps4¢
IY >999%Cliff 24Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 44078¢
IY 8.4%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Bank of Canada Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Maintains rate28¢
IY 874%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 45014¢
IY 183%Cliff 6Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 4556¢
IY 466%Cliff 16Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Elon Musk visit Mars before Aug 1, 2099?: Mars10¢
IY 12%Cliff 9Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
Will Bank of Canada Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?: Cut 25bps24¢
IY >999%Cliff 3Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
How bad will CO2 atmospheric concentration get before 2030?: At least 44522¢
IY 106%Cliff 4Edge —RVol —Resid —$0
13 contracts total · sort any columnFull set on /screen →

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 24 Aug 2026 06:38:41 GMT.

All markets

Liquidity heatmap across both venues. /markets →

Cross-venue / Polymarket

Per-question parity map (includes Polymarket). /odds?category=world →

Filter & explore

IY / CRI / RV / VR cuts in this category. /screen?category=world →

JSON API

Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →