Will the President sign between 300 and 349 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will the President sign between 300 and 349 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. The 11¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in this narrow 300-349 range, with the implied yield on Yes positions reaching an exceptional 686.5% despite over 1,000 days to expiry—suggesting either significant mispricing or market skepticism about this specific outcome band.
Analysis
The 11¢ price reflects extremely low conviction in this narrow 300-349 range, with the implied yield on Yes positions reaching an exceptional 686.5% despite over 1,000 days to expiry—suggesting either significant mispricing or market skepticism about this specific outcome band. Volume is thin at just $27 in 24 hours against $2,637 open interest, and the 6¢ spread indicates limited liquidity for meaningful position sizing. Historical context matters here: Trump's first term saw roughly 220 executive orders, making 300-349 a notably aggressive range that would require a substantial acceleration in signing pace, which likely explains the depressed pricing and the market's neutral regime despite the extreme yield differential.
Resolution rules
If the President signs between 300 to 349 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-324 yes 100