Will the President sign between 650 and 699 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 6% probability that Will the President sign between 650 and 699 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 6¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (8%) for a relatively narrow band of 650-699 executive orders over four years, despite the massive 566% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting significant mispricing potential.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low probability (8%) for a relatively narrow band of 650-699 executive orders over four years, despite the massive 566% implied yield on the Yes side suggesting significant mispricing potential. The zero 24-hour volume and modest $2,970 open interest indicate severe liquidity constraints, making the 3¢ spread potentially deceptive given how difficult it may be to actually execute trades at posted prices. The recent price decline from 8¢ to 6¢ over seven days combined with the elevated cliff risk index of 16 warrants caution, as this suggests the market may be vulnerable to sharp repricing if new information emerges about executive order patterns.
Resolution rules
If the President signs between 650 to 699 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-674 yes 100