Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. The market is pricing this outcome at just 11¢ despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 566% for Yes positions, suggesting severe underpricing relative to historical executive order issuance rates—Trump signed 220 orders in his first term, and reaching 500-549 over four years would require roughly doubling that pace.
Analysis
The market is pricing this outcome at just 11¢ despite an extraordinarily high implied yield of 566% for Yes positions, suggesting severe underpricing relative to historical executive order issuance rates—Trump signed 220 orders in his first term, and reaching 500-549 over four years would require roughly doubling that pace. The extremely thin liquidity ($27 in 24h volume, $1,952 open interest) and wide 5¢ spread indicate this is a low-conviction market where the low price may reflect illiquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. Recent price movement from 9¢ to 6¢ shows downward pressure, but with over 1,000 days to expiry and a neutral regime, there's substantial time for resolution uncertainty to resolve.
Resolution rules
If the President signs between 500 to 549 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-524 yes 100