Will the President sign between 550 and 599 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the President sign between 550 and 599 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (6%) for a moderate executive order count during the second term, despite historical context suggesting this range may be more likely than the odds imply—Trump signed 220 EOs in his first term, while Biden is on pace for roughly 400-450 by January 2029, making 550-599 a plausible upper-middle scenario.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely low probability (6%) for a moderate executive order count during the second term, despite historical context suggesting this range may be more likely than the odds imply—Trump signed 220 EOs in his first term, while Biden is on pace for roughly 400-450 by January 2029, making 550-599 a plausible upper-middle scenario. The 566% implied yield on the Yes side reflects severe underpricing relative to the long time horizon (1,010 days), though thin liquidity ($40 daily volume, $1,837 open interest) and a wide 5¢ spread suggest limited market depth and potential execution challenges for larger positions. The neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action indicate this contract lacks conviction from traders, presenting a potential value opportunity if one believes the true probability exceeds 10-15%.
Resolution rules
If the President signs between 550 to 599 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-574 yes 100