Will the President sign between 600 and 649 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the President sign between 600 and 649 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. This market prices an 11% probability for a relatively narrow band (600-649 EOs) over a four-year presidential term, implying skepticism that Trump will stay within this specific range despite his first term averaging roughly 55 EOs per year.
Analysis
This market prices an 11% probability for a relatively narrow band (600-649 EOs) over a four-year presidential term, implying skepticism that Trump will stay within this specific range despite his first term averaging roughly 55 EOs per year. The 480% implied yield on the Yes side reflects extreme underpricing relative to the 1,010-day time horizon, though the anemic $27 daily volume and $2,445 open interest suggest thin liquidity that could amplify price swings as resolution approaches. The 4¢ spread and neutral regime score indicate balanced market sentiment, but the cliff risk index of 13 warrants caution—this contract's binary nature means late-breaking policy shifts could create sharp repricing in the final months.
Resolution rules
If the President signs between 600 to 649 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-624 yes 100