Will the President sign more than 800 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 11% probability that Will the President sign more than 800 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 11¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. The market is pricing in only a 9% probability of exceeding 800 executive orders over the four-year term (roughly 200 per year), which appears conservative given that President Trump signed 220 orders in his first term alone.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 9% probability of exceeding 800 executive orders over the four-year term (roughly 200 per year), which appears conservative given that President Trump signed 220 orders in his first term alone. The extreme 480% implied yield on the Yes side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume and thin $978 open interest suggests this is a highly illiquid market where the 5¢ spread may not reflect true consensus. The sharp 6¢ price decline over seven days warrants caution, as it could indicate either informed selling pressure or simply reflect the low-liquidity regime where small trades create outsized moves.
Resolution rules
If the President signs above 800 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-800 yes 100