Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Kalshi, closing January 21, 2029. This market is pricing in an exceptionally bullish view of executive action, with just 13% probability assigned to fewer than 300 orders over four years—implying an expected rate of 75+ orders annually.
Analysis
This market is pricing in an exceptionally bullish view of executive action, with just 13% probability assigned to fewer than 300 orders over four years—implying an expected rate of 75+ orders annually. The extreme 325% implied yield on the Yes side combined with zero 24-hour volume and modest $4,145 open interest suggests thin liquidity and limited conviction from traders, while the 9 Cliff Risk Index indicates potential resolution complications. The recent price decline from 11¢ to 10¢ over seven days may reflect growing market confidence that the threshold will be exceeded, though the long 1,010-day timeframe leaves substantial room for sentiment shifts.
Resolution rules
If the President signs below 300 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXEOTRUMPTERM-29JAN20-300 yes 100