Will Airbnb Inc. report above 155 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 97%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
above 140 million
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
97¢
above 130 million
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$27K
liquid
Closes
May 30, 2026
22 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Airbnb Inc. report above 1
Will Airbnb Inc. report above 160 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026?: above 160 million
KXABNB-26APRNEB-160000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report above 150 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026?: above 150 million
KXABNB-26APRNEB-150000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report above 155 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026?: above 155 million
KXABNB-26APRNEB-155000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report above 140 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026?: above 140 million
KXABNB-26APRNEB-140000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report above 135 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026?: above 135 million
KXABNB-26APRNEB-135000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report above 145 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026?: above 145 million
KXABNB-26APRNEB-145000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report above 130 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026?: above 130 million
KXABNB-26APRNEB-130000000
Analysis
This 93% probability indicates traders believe Airbnb will report more than 150 million nights and experiences booked in Q1 2026, with only a 7% chance of reporting 150 million or fewer. The high confidence reflects Airbnb's consistent historical booking volumes and the platform's recovery trajectory post-pandemic. However, the probability hinges on two competing dynamics: seasonal strength in Q1 travel demand typically supports higher bookings, while macroeconomic pressures on consumer spending could dampen growth. The resolution depends entirely on Airbnb's official Q1 2026 earnings report, expected in late April or early May 2026, which will provide the definitive booking volume figure. Until that disclosure, traders are pricing in the base case that current booking trends continue without significant market disruption.
- ›Airbnb's Q1 2023-2025 booking volumes exceeded 150 million nights in most periods, establishing a historical baseline for performance
- ›Q1 typically sees elevated travel demand due to spring break and Easter holiday seasonality, structurally supporting higher booking volumes
- ›Consumer discretionary spending trends and global macroeconomic conditions in early 2026 will determine whether booking growth accelerates, stagnates, or contracts
- ›The probability spread (93% vs. 7%) suggests material but not overwhelming uncertainty, implying traders see downside risk from economic weakness but not as the base case
- ›The runner-up contract at 54% (above 155 million) reflects meaningful optionality that booking volumes could fall between 150-155 million, indicating tighter margins than the headline probability suggests
What moved the line
- May 7above 155 million↓15pp60→45¢ · Kalshi
- May 7above 135 million↓9pp99→90¢ · Kalshi
- May 6above 155 million↑6pp54→60¢ · Kalshi
- May 6above 160 million↑3pp7→10¢ · Kalshi
- May 2above 150 million↑3pp89→92¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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