Will Airbnb Inc. report above 155 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This 93% probability indicates traders believe Airbnb will report more than 150 million nights and experiences booked in Q1 2026, with only a 7% chance of reporting 150 million or fewer. The high confidence reflects Airbnb's consistent historical booking volumes and the platform's recovery trajectory post-pandemic. However, the probability hinges on two competing dynamics: seasonal strength in Q1 travel demand typically supports higher bookings, while macroeconomic pressures on consumer spending could dampen growth. The resolution depends entirely on Airbnb's official Q1 2026 earnings report, expected in late April or early May 2026, which will provide the definitive booking volume figure. Until that disclosure, traders are pricing in the base case that current booking trends continue without significant market disruption.

• ›Airbnb's Q1 2023-2025 booking volumes exceeded 150 million nights in most periods, establishing a historical baseline for performance
• ›Q1 typically sees elevated travel demand due to spring break and Easter holiday seasonality, structurally supporting higher booking volumes
• ›Consumer discretionary spending trends and global macroeconomic conditions in early 2026 will determine whether booking growth accelerates, stagnates, or contracts
• ›The probability spread (93% vs. 7%) suggests material but not overwhelming uncertainty, implying traders see downside risk from economic weakness but not as the base case
• ›The runner-up contract at 54% (above 155 million) reflects meaningful optionality that booking volumes could fall between 150-155 million, indicating tighter margins than the headline probability suggests

What moved the line

• Jul 6Above 147 million↑6pp41→47¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 7Above 146 million↑6pp61→67¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 7Above 147 million↑5pp47→52¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 7Above 145 million↑4pp78→82¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 7Above 148 million↑3pp25→28¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

• Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026last 96% · 0d
• Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 6, 2026last 65% · 2d
• Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 6, 2026last 60% · 2d
• Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 6, 2026last 86% · 2d
• Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 19, 2026last 48% · 7d

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds