Will Airbnb Inc. report above 155 million nights & experiences booked in Q1 2026
Leader sits at 93% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 138 million
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Above 140 million
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 5, 2027
169 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 1
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 140 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 140 million
KXABNB-26NOVNEB-140000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 150 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 150 million
KXABNB-26NOVNEB-150000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 148 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 148 million
KXABNB-26NOVNEB-148000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 146 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 146 million
KXABNB-26NOVNEB-146000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 144 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 144 million
KXABNB-26NOVNEB-144000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 142 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 142 million
KXABNB-26NOVNEB-142000000
Will Airbnb Inc. report Above 138 million nights & experiences booked in Q3 2026?: Above 138 million
KXABNB-26NOVNEB-138000000
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 93% probability that Airbnb will report above 138 million nights and experiences booked in Q3 2026, with declining confidence at higher thresholds (62% above 146 million). This reflects expectations for typical seasonal strength in the third quarter, when summer travel peaks in Northern Hemisphere markets. The high baseline confidence suggests traders expect Airbnb's booking trends to continue at or near recent levels. Resolution depends on Airbnb's Q3 2026 earnings report, likely due in late October or early November 2026. Key uncertainty centers on macro travel demand, competitive pressure from alternative platforms, and any disruptions to leisure or business travel patterns between now and quarter-end. The widening spread across thresholds indicates genuine disagreement about how far above 138 million actual bookings will reach.
- ›Q3 historically represents peak travel season in developed markets, supporting higher booking volumes than Q1 or Q4
- ›Current contract spread (93% at 138M down to 62% at 146M) suggests a median forecast around 142-144 million nights, implying modest growth or stability from recent quarters
- ›Airbnb's reported Q2 2026 result and guidance would directly influence current pricing; any recent guidance miss or booking slowdown would lower these probabilities
- ›Macroeconomic conditions affecting discretionary travel spending between now and September 2026 will materially impact actual booking volumes
- ›Resolution date is Airbnb's official Q3 2026 earnings announcement, expected late October or November 2026
What moved the line
- Sep 11Above 138 million↓4pp93→89¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Above 148 million↓4pp49→45¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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