Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Jul 14, 2026
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
Before Jul 13, 2026
Spread
80pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$116K
liquid
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 1
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 14, 2026?: Before Jul 14, 2026
KXPLATNEROFFICIALWITHDRAW-27-26JUL14
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 13, 2026?: Before Jul 13, 2026
KXPLATNEROFFICIALWITHDRAW-27-26JUL13
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026?: Before Jul 11, 2026
KXPLATNEROFFICIALWITHDRAW-27-26JUL11
Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 12, 2026?: Before Jul 12, 2026
KXPLATNEROFFICIALWITHDRAW-27-26JUL12
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 94% probability that Graham Platner's withdrawal from the Maine Senate race will be officially reported before July 14, 2026. This high probability reflects strong conviction that an announcement is imminent, with the deadline just days away. The market distinguishes between earlier withdrawal dates—assigning just 21% probability to withdrawal by July 11 and 25% by July 12—suggesting traders expect the announcement around July 13 or early July 14. Key factors likely driving this view include recent candidate statements, filing deadlines, or reported negotiations within Maine political circles. The primary uncertainty is the exact timing of any potential announcement rather than whether withdrawal occurs at all. Conviction this strong typically reflects either material private information circulating among traders or extraordinary public developments making withdrawal nearly certain.
- ›The 94% probability for before July 14 versus only 21% for before July 11 indicates traders expect withdrawal announcement between July 12-14 rather than today or tomorrow
- ›24-hour trading volume concentration ($23,123 on the July 14 contract) suggests recent significant information flow or consensus shift among market participants
- ›Multi-contract structure allows precise dating expectations; the gradient from 21% to 94% across 4-day window is steeper than normal candidate uncertainty patterns
- ›July 14 represents a natural deadline (likely campaign filing or registration cutoff) that would explain the specific probability cliff at that date
- ›Market pricing this high typically emerges from candidate communications, party coordination announcements, or filed legal documents rather than pure speculation
What moved the line
- Jul 10Before Jul 13, 2026↑9pp19→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Before Jul 12, 2026↓5pp24→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Before Jul 14, 2026↑4pp92→96¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Before Jul 11, 2026↓4pp18→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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