Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 6, 2026
Leader sits at 65% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 52%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
4.45% or above
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
52¢
4.5% or above
Spread
13pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 10, 2026
1 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.59% on Jul 10, 2026?: 4.6% or above
KXUST10A-26JUL10-T4.59
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.49% on Jul 10, 2026?: 4.5% or above
KXUST10A-26JUL10-T4.49
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.54% on Jul 10, 2026?: 4.55% or above
KXUST10A-26JUL10-T4.54
Will the 10Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.44% on Jul 10, 2026?: 4.45% or above
KXUST10A-26JUL10-T4.44
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield will exceed 4.54% by July 6, 2026—just two days away. The 64% probability assigned to the 4.39% threshold (the current leader) versus only 3% for this 4.54% level suggests traders expect yields to remain in a relatively narrow range near current levels. Treasury yields are primarily driven by Federal Reserve policy expectations, inflation data, and economic growth forecasts. With the resolution date imminent, upcoming economic data releases and any Fed communications in the next 48 hours would be the main catalysts that could shift yields meaningfully. The significant gap between probabilities at different thresholds (4.39% at 64% versus 4.54% at 3%) indicates the market sees a steep decline in probability as yield targets rise, suggesting most traders view a substantial near-term spike as unlikely.
- ›Current 10Y yield is approximately 4.35-4.40%, requiring a 14-19 basis point move upward in two days to settle above 4.54%
- ›The 4.54% contract trades at only 3¢ versus 44¢ for the 4.39% contract, indicating sharp probability decay at higher thresholds
- ›No major scheduled Fed announcements or inflation data releases are expected between July 4-6
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in the 4.44-4.49% range contracts, suggesting market focus on near-term consolidation rather than large moves
- ›Historical 2-day moves in 10Y yields rarely exceed 20 basis points outside crisis periods or major policy surprises
What moved the line
- Jul 84.45% or above↑69pp5→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.5% or above↑39pp16→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.55% or above↑33pp16→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 84.6% or above↑18pp16→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 74.6% or above↑14pp2→16¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in fed rate
- What are the odds of a Fed rate cut?last 53% · 0d
- Will the 2Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.19% on Jul 6, 2026last 60% · 2d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 6, 2026last 86% · 2d
- Will the Fed cut rates in July 2026?last 49% · 3d
- Will 30Y US Treasury Yield for month-end be above 4.95%last 14% · 11d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in fed rate.
In fed rate
Related reading
Fed On Hold: 78¢ Probability of No Rate Move at July Meeting
Fed July meeting market (20¢ hike, 78¢ hold) shows overwhelming consensus for no move. Backing this, CPI YoY above 3.6% trades at 96¢, recession probability is just 10¢, and the year-end rate cut count of 0 trades at 76¢. The market is firmly in 'higher for longer' territory.
Fed Rate Decision: Pause Priced In, Tail Risk on Cuts
The July FOMC meeting is expected to result in a 0bps hike (85¢). However, a surprise 25bps cut is priced at just 1¢, attracting speculative volume. CPI and unemployment data releases will be key to any repricing.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.