SimpleFunctions
ClosedLast odds shown below are frozen at close (Aug 15, 2026). Future questions tracked on /odds.
1 source contract·Kalshi 1·closed just now·Closes Nov 1, 2026 · 78d

Will Trippie Redd release a new album before Nov 1, 2026

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 97% across 1 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

97%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

97%

1 contract

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

1 contracts

Closes

Nov 1, 2026

78 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 99% (9 days, 9 points)Aggregate: 99% on 2026-08-14
Aggregate of 1 contract · 9d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Trippie Redd release a new album before Nov 1, 2026

1 contract$0

Analysis

The market estimates a 76% probability that Trippie Redd will release a new album by November 1, 2026, reflecting trader expectations about the rapper's release schedule over the next four months. The probability is supported by the artist's historical release pace and any announced projects, but tempered by uncertainty about specific launch dates and potential delays. The gap between the November deadline (76%) and the October deadline (62%) suggests meaningful uncertainty concentrated in October and early November. Key drivers include whether Trippie Redd has publicly announced an album with a confirmed release date, his recent activity and touring schedule, and any label or streaming platform announcements. The biggest catalyst would be an official album release date announcement, which could either confirm imminent delivery or push expectations beyond the November window.

  • Trippie Redd's typical release cadence and time elapsed since his last album release
  • Any publicly announced album title, singles, or confirmed release date statements from the artist or label
  • His current touring schedule and promotional activity level as signals of album readiness
  • The 14-percentage-point difference between November (76%) and October (62%) deadlines indicates concentrated uncertainty in the final month
  • Historical pattern of delays or unexpected drops versus on-schedule releases in his discography

Recently closed in entertainment

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

Lateral coverage

Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.

This page aggregates 1 contract (97% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.