Will Lost Weekend by Phoebe Bridgers have more first week Album Equivalent Units, within the first week of release tracking week, than WILD by KATSEYE on Luminate during the within the first week of release
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 51% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
51%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$234
4 contracts
Closes
Aug 23, 2026
59 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will WILD by KATSEYE have more first week Album Equivalent Units, within the first week of release tracking week, than Lost Weekend by Phoebe Bridgers on Luminate during the within the first week of release
Cluster 2
Will Lost Weekend by Phoebe Bridgers have more first week Album Equivalent Units, within the first week of release tracking week, than WILD by KATSEYE on Luminate during the within the first week of release
Cluster 3
Will Daughter From Hell have more first week Album Equivalent Units, within the first week of release tracking week, than Music, Fashion, Film on Luminate during the within the first week of release
Cluster 4
Will Music, Fashion, Film have more first week Album Equivalent Units, within the first week of release tracking week, than Daughter From Hell on Luminate within the first week of release
Analysis
This market asks whether Phoebe Bridgers' "Lost Weekend" will accumulate more Album Equivalent Units than KATSEYE's "WILD" during their respective first tracking weeks on Luminate. The 51% probability reflects near-parity between the two releases, with the market essentially undecided. Bridgers' established fanbase and prior commercial success create a baseline expectation, while KATSEYE's trajectory as an emerging act introduces uncertainty about debut momentum. The resolution depends on actual Luminate data released after each album's first tracking week concludes. Chart positioning, playlist placements, streaming velocity, and pre-order numbers in the weeks before release will provide signals about likely outcomes, though first-week unit totals remain the definitive metric.
- ›Phoebe Bridgers' previous album performance and established listener base versus KATSEYE's standing as a newer artist with potentially concentrated fanbase engagement
- ›Pre-order volume and early streaming patterns in the two weeks before each release, which historically correlate with first-week unit performance
- ›Playlist placement depth and breadth on major streaming services, particularly Spotify and Apple Music, during the first tracking week
- ›Release date proximity to major holidays, competing releases, or promotional campaigns that could affect week-over-week consumption
- ›Luminate's official first-week Album Equivalent Unit counts, which determine resolution and are typically reported within 2-3 weeks after each release date
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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