Will the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 3, 2026 be above 314M
Leader sits at 46% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 46%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 314M
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
46¢
Above 316M
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$906
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 8, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 3
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 318M?: Above 318M
KXSPRLVL-26JUL15-T318
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 322M?: Above 322M
KXSPRLVL-26JUL15-T322
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 324M?: Above 324M
KXSPRLVL-26JUL15-T324
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 314M?: Above 314M
KXSPRLVL-26JUL15-T314
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 320M?: Above 320M
KXSPRLVL-26JUL15-T320
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 10, 2026 be above 316M?: Above 316M
KXSPRLVL-26JUL15-T316
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment of whether the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will hold at least 314 million barrels for the week ending July 3, 2026. At 82% probability, traders view this level as likely. The SPR level fluctuates based on crude oil purchase and sale decisions by the Department of Energy, influenced by oil prices, domestic production needs, and Congressional budget actions. The key driver is whether DOE will continue recent net purchases or shift toward sales or drawdowns. Resolution depends on the official SPR data release from the Energy Information Administration, typically published weekly on Wednesdays, which provides the definitive week-ending inventory figure. Contract pricing across the range (314M to 322M) suggests traders expect reserves somewhere in the 314-318M barrel range, with diminishing confidence at higher levels.
- ›Recent SPR net purchase or sale activity and DOE's stated inventory management plans for Q3 2026
- ›Oil market prices and whether DOE views current price levels as appropriate for adding to or drawing down reserves
- ›Congressional actions or budget provisions affecting SPR fill or sale authorities during 2026
- ›The official EIA weekly petroleum status report release date and historical volatility in reported SPR figures
- ›Domestic crude oil production levels and refinery demand, which indirectly signal whether strategic reserves are being drawn for market supply
What moved the line
- Jul 9Above 318M↓7pp21→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Above 322M↓4pp9→5¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Above 320M↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in oil
- Will Samson Clinical Operations's male Androgenetic Alopecia (AGA) drug (Sublingual Minoxidil) report No Results Phase 3 results in SAM-002last 92% · 8d
- Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Jun 30, 2026last 14% · 8d
- What will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit before 2027?: 5 Gweilast 47% · 21d
- What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $77-$84last 35% · 21d
- Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?: 1.5mlast 96% · 21d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in oil.
In oil
Related reading
Oil Prices Surge 4% as Energy Markets Price in Sustained $70+ Crude
WTI crude oil rallied 4% today, with prediction markets showing 84% probability of prices staying above $70.49 through July 10. The energy sector (XLE) gained 1.87%, while stock markets were mixed. Traders are increasingly pricing in a meaningful chance of a major supply disruption, with the $115+ spike contract for year-end trading at 31¢.
Gold Shines as Dollar Dips: Commodity Markets Signal Risk-Off Shift
Gold surged 2.14% as the dollar weakened, signaling a potential flight-to-safety move in commodities. Traders should watch the KXGOLDD and KXWTI markets for price direction.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.