Will the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level for the week ending July 3, 2026 be above 314M
Leader sits at 95% across 10 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 290M
Outcomes
10
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above 291M
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$970
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 19, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
10 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending August 14, 2026 be above
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending August 14, 2026 be above 305M?: Above 305M
KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T305
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending August 14, 2026 be above 290M?: Above 290M
KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T290
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending August 14, 2026 be above 309M?: Above 309M
KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T309
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending August 14, 2026 be above 304M?: Above 304M
KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T304
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending August 14, 2026 be above 300M?: Above 300M
KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T300
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending August 14, 2026 be above 299M?: Above 299M
KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T299
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending August 14, 2026 be above 293M?: Above 293M
KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T293
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending August 14, 2026 be above 292M?: Above 292M
KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T292
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending August 14, 2026 be above 291M?: Above 291M
KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T291
Will US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending August 14, 2026 be above 303M?: Above 303M
KXSPRLVL-26AUG19-T303
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment of whether the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve will hold at least 314 million barrels for the week ending July 3, 2026. At 82% probability, traders view this level as likely. The SPR level fluctuates based on crude oil purchase and sale decisions by the Department of Energy, influenced by oil prices, domestic production needs, and Congressional budget actions. The key driver is whether DOE will continue recent net purchases or shift toward sales or drawdowns. Resolution depends on the official SPR data release from the Energy Information Administration, typically published weekly on Wednesdays, which provides the definitive week-ending inventory figure. Contract pricing across the range (314M to 322M) suggests traders expect reserves somewhere in the 314-318M barrel range, with diminishing confidence at higher levels.
- ›Recent SPR net purchase or sale activity and DOE's stated inventory management plans for Q3 2026
- ›Oil market prices and whether DOE views current price levels as appropriate for adding to or drawing down reserves
- ›Congressional actions or budget provisions affecting SPR fill or sale authorities during 2026
- ›The official EIA weekly petroleum status report release date and historical volatility in reported SPR figures
- ›Domestic crude oil production levels and refinery demand, which indirectly signal whether strategic reserves are being drawn for market supply
What moved the line
- Aug 17Above 305M↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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