Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026
Leader sits at 45% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 29%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Sep 4, 2026
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
29¢
Before Aug 31, 2026
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Sep 4, 2026
14 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before
Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Sep 4, 2026?: Before Sep 4, 2026
KXGROK-GROK47-26SEP04
Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 31, 2026?: Before Aug 31, 2026
KXGROK-GROK47-26AUG31
Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 28, 2026?: Before Aug 28, 2026
KXGROK-GROK47-26AUG28
Analysis
This probability indicates that market participants assign a 63% chance SpaceX AI releases Grok 4.7 by September 4, 2026—roughly five weeks from now. The relatively high probability reflects recent Grok release cadence, though the steep price decline across earlier deadlines (from 63¢ to just 11¢ for the August 21 window) suggests skepticism about near-term delivery. Market makers appear to expect either a late-August or early-September release rather than an imminent one. The key driver is SpaceX AI's historical release velocity; if Grok 4.7 is already in final testing or staged for release, the probability would likely hold or rise. Conversely, silence on the development timeline or competing priorities could lower it. The primary resolution point will be any official announcement from SpaceX or xAI regarding version 4.7 status, which would clarify whether the September 4 window is realistic or optimistic.
- ›Recent Grok release history and average time between major version updates establishes baseline expectations for development cycles
- ›Contract pricing structure shows declining conviction for earlier deadlines (11¢ for Aug 21 vs 63¢ for Sep 4), indicating market expects late August or early September timing rather than imminent release
- ›Any public statements from xAI leadership or SpaceX regarding Grok 4.7 development status, roadmap milestones, or testing phases would directly impact probability assessment
- ›Absence of official announcement or development news as August progresses would typically compress probabilities toward post-September outcomes
- ›Historical pattern of surprise drops versus announced release schedules affects how markets price pre-announcement uncertainty windows
What moved the line
- Aug 18Before Aug 31, 2026↓10pp19→9¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Before Aug 31, 2026↑7pp9→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Before Sep 4, 2026↓5pp38→33¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Before Aug 28, 2026↓4pp16→12¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Before Sep 4, 2026↑3pp35→38¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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