Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 12%
Leader sits at 97% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -4%
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Above -2%
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above -4%?: Above -4%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T-4
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 14%?: Above 14%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T14
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above -2%?: Above -2%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T-2
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 12%?: Above 12%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T12
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 8%?: Above 8%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T8
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 10%?: Above 10%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T10
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 2%?: Above 2%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T2
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 0%?: Above 0%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T0
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 16%?: Above 16%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T16
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 4%?: Above 4%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T4
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 6%?: Above 6%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T6
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 18%?: Above 18%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T18
Will China exports YoY for April 2026 be above 20%?: Above 20%
KXCHEXPORTS-26MAY08-T20
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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