Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 24%
Leader sits at 96% across 13 bound outcomes, runner-up at 96%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 2%
Outcomes
13
winner-take-all
Runner-up
96¢
Above 4%
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
13 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 2%?: Above 2%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T2
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 14%?: Above 14%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T14
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 4%?: Above 4%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T4
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 16%?: Above 16%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T16
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 12%?: Above 12%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T12
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 6%?: Above 6%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T6
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 20%?: Above 20%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T20
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 22%?: Above 22%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T22
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 10%?: Above 10%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T10
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 8%?: Above 8%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T8
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 28%?: Above 28%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T28
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 26%?: Above 26%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T26
Will China imports YoY for April 2026 be above 18%?: Above 18%
KXCHIMPORTS-26MAY08-T18
Analysis
The market currently assigns a 96% probability that China's year-over-year import growth for April 2026 will exceed 2%, but only a 60% probability it exceeds 16%. This wide gap reflects uncertainty about the magnitude of import growth rather than whether imports will grow at all. China's imports are sensitive to global commodity prices, domestic manufacturing demand, and trade policy shifts. The key driver of the current pricing is recent macroeconomic data from China and trading partner economies, which typically shows import growth moderating or accelerating based on industrial production and infrastructure investment. The April 2026 customs data release—scheduled for early May—will resolve this question by providing actual year-over-year import figures, allowing traders to assess whether growth landed in the 2-14% range (most uncertain area) or exceeded expectations.
- ›The probability gradient across outcomes (96% above 2% but only 3% above 12%) indicates traders view April growth as likely positive but not explosive, centered in the single-digit to mid-teens range
- ›Trading volume concentrates in the 2% threshold contract ($526 24h vol), suggesting this is the primary point of disagreement between bulls and bears
- ›China's import growth is mechanically tied to global commodity cycles and domestic fixed-asset investment rates, both observable and predictable from leading indicators
- ›The 14% and 16% thresholds show minimal probability (<20%), indicating market consensus against strong double-digit growth
- ›April 2026 customs data becomes public in early May and definitively resolves all outcomes simultaneously
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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