Los Angeles L Pro Basketball team, Los Angeles C Pro Basketball Team, Los Angeles R Pro Football team, Los Angeles C Pro Football team, Los Angeles D Pro Baseball team, Los Angeles A Pro Baseball team, the Los Angeles Kings, and the Anaheim Ducks
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 30% across 16 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
30%
16 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
16 contracts
Closes
Jul 1, 2030
1409 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 16 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Chicago Pro Basketball team, Chicago Pro Football team, Chicago C Pro Baseball Team, Chicago WS Pro Baseball team, and the Chicago Blackhawks: At least
Chicago Pro Basketball team, Chicago Pro Football team, Chicago C Pro Baseball Team, Chicago WS Pro Baseball team, and the Chicago Blackhawks: At least 3 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 3+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-CHI30JUL01BBCWB-3
Chicago Pro Basketball team, Chicago Pro Football team, Chicago C Pro Baseball Team, Chicago WS Pro Baseball team, and the Chicago Blackhawks: At least 4 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 4+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-CHI30JUL01BBCWB-4
Chicago Pro Basketball team, Chicago Pro Football team, Chicago C Pro Baseball Team, Chicago WS Pro Baseball team, and the Chicago Blackhawks: At least 2 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 2+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-CHI30JUL01BBCWB-2
Chicago Pro Basketball team, Chicago Pro Football team, Chicago C Pro Baseball Team, Chicago WS Pro Baseball team, and the Chicago Blackhawks: At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-CHI30JUL01BBCWB-1
Cluster 2
Los Angeles L Pro Basketball team, Los Angeles C Pro Basketball Team, Los Angeles R Pro Football team, Los Angeles C Pro Football team, Los Angeles D Pro Baseball team, Los Angeles A Pro Baseball team, the Los Angeles Kings, and the Anaheim Ducks: At least
Los Angeles L Pro Basketball team, Los Angeles C Pro Basketball Team, Los Angeles R Pro Football team, Los Angeles C Pro Football team, Los Angeles D Pro Baseball team, Los Angeles A Pro Baseball team, the Los Angeles Kings, and the Anaheim Ducks: At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-LA30JUL01LCRCDAKD-1
Los Angeles L Pro Basketball team, Los Angeles C Pro Basketball Team, Los Angeles R Pro Football team, Los Angeles C Pro Football team, Los Angeles D Pro Baseball team, Los Angeles A Pro Baseball team, the Los Angeles Kings, and the Anaheim Ducks: At least 4 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 4+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-LA30JUL01LCRCDAKD-4
Los Angeles L Pro Basketball team, Los Angeles C Pro Basketball Team, Los Angeles R Pro Football team, Los Angeles C Pro Football team, Los Angeles D Pro Baseball team, Los Angeles A Pro Baseball team, the Los Angeles Kings, and the Anaheim Ducks: At least 3 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 3+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-LA30JUL01LCRCDAKD-3
Los Angeles L Pro Basketball team, Los Angeles C Pro Basketball Team, Los Angeles R Pro Football team, Los Angeles C Pro Football team, Los Angeles D Pro Baseball team, Los Angeles A Pro Baseball team, the Los Angeles Kings, and the Anaheim Ducks: At least 2 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 2+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-LA30JUL01LCRCDAKD-2
Cluster 3
Denver Pro Basketball team, Denver Pro Football team, Colorado Pro Baseball team, and the Colorado Avalanche: At least
Denver Pro Basketball team, Denver Pro Football team, Colorado Pro Baseball team, and the Colorado Avalanche: At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-DEN30JUL01NBRA-1
Denver Pro Basketball team, Denver Pro Football team, Colorado Pro Baseball team, and the Colorado Avalanche: At least 3 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 3+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-DEN30JUL01NBRA-3
Denver Pro Basketball team, Denver Pro Football team, Colorado Pro Baseball team, and the Colorado Avalanche: At least 2 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 2+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-DEN30JUL01NBRA-2
Cluster 4
Golden State Pro Basketball team, San Francisco Pro Football team, San Francisco Pro Baseball team, and the San Jose Sharks: At least
Golden State Pro Basketball team, San Francisco Pro Football team, San Francisco Pro Baseball team, and the San Jose Sharks: At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-BAY30JUL01W4GS-1
Golden State Pro Basketball team, San Francisco Pro Football team, San Francisco Pro Baseball team, and the San Jose Sharks: At least 2 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 2+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-BAY30JUL01W4GS-2
Cluster 5
Boston Pro Basketball team, New England Pro Football team, Boston Pro Baseball team, and the Boston Bruins: At least
Boston Pro Basketball team, New England Pro Football team, Boston Pro Baseball team, and the Boston Bruins: At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-BOS30JUL01CPRB-1
Boston Pro Basketball team, New England Pro Football team, Boston Pro Baseball team, and the Boston Bruins: At least 2 championships after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 2+ championships
KXCITYCHAMPS-BOS30JUL01CPRB-2
Cluster 6
Miami Pro Basketball team, Miami Pro Football team, Miami Pro Baseball team, and the Florida Panthers: At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships
Analysis
This 31% probability reflects the likelihood that Los Angeles's eight major professional sports teams will collectively win at least one championship between June 2026 and July 2030. The metric aggregates outcomes across basketball, football, and baseball, making it sensitive to the competitive strength and injury status of multiple franchises simultaneously. The probability is driven primarily by the Los Angeles Lakers' roster composition and playoff trajectory, given basketball's outsized influence on multi-sport aggregates, and secondarily by the Dodgers' performance in baseball's postseason format. The primary uncertainty resolver will be the 2030 postseason results, though interim championship windows in the 2027-2029 seasons will incrementally clarify franchise competitiveness and injury resilience. Current market pricing suggests meaningful doubt about at least one title within this four-year window despite Los Angeles's large player base and resources.
- ›Lakers' current roster age and injury history relative to championship-contending timelines in NBA
- ›Dodgers' pitching depth and playoff sustainability in MLB's high-variance postseason format
- ›Combined impact of personnel changes, trades, and free agency across eight franchises before peak competitive windows
- ›Whether any of the three football or hockey franchises achieve sustained playoff seeding and deep runs
- ›Historical championship frequency for Los Angeles franchises in this era compared to market expectations
What moved the line
- Aug 17At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships↑14pp21→35¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships↑14pp36→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships↓9pp30→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships↓9pp45→36¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20At least 1 championship after Jun 9, 2026 and before Jul 1, 2030: 1+ championships↓8pp51→43¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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