How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026
Leader sits at 27% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
0
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
2
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Sep 1, 2026
23 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026
How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026?: 4
KXDCGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-4
How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026?: 3
KXDCGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-3
How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026?: 2
KXDCGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-2
How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026?: 0
KXDCGOLFVISITCOUNT-26AUG-0
Analysis
This probability reflects whether Donald Trump will visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. exactly once during August 2026. The 35% price for a single visit suggests traders view one visit as the most likely outcome, though the 29% probability assigned to zero visits indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether he visits at all. The near-term catalyst is the calendar itself—the month ends August 31st, so resolution depends on verifiable visit records before that date. Factors driving the current level include Trump's typical golf frequency during the summer months, any scheduled public appearances or events in the Washington, D.C. area that month, and the operational status of the club during August. The spread between single-visit (35%) and zero-visit (29%) outcomes suggests traders are split on his anticipated activity level, with smaller probabilities assigned to multiple visits.
- ›Trump's historical visitation pattern to this specific club during August in previous years
- ›Whether Trump has scheduled public events or campaigning activities in the D.C. area during August 2026
- ›The operational status and any scheduled closures or renovations at Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. during the month
- ›Media coverage and public records showing actual visit dates, which will provide definitive resolution data
- ›Comparison to his typical summer travel patterns and golf club usage across his properties
What moved the line
- Aug 60↑13pp14→27¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 42↑6pp9→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 44↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 64↑5pp11→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 83↑4pp10→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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