Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Jun 30, 2026
Leader sits at 14% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
75.01 or above
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
76.01 or above
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $7
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $77 by Jun 30, 2026?: 77.01 or above
KXWTIMAXM-26JUN30-T77
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $75 by Jun 30, 2026?: 75.01 or above
KXWTIMAXM-26JUN30-T75
Will the maximum WTI front month settle price reach $76 by Jun 30, 2026?: 76.01 or above
KXWTIMAXM-26JUN30-T76
Analysis
This probability estimates a 55% chance that crude oil (WTI front-month contract) will reach or exceed $75 per barrel at some point between now and June 30, 2026—just six days away. The current WTI price and recent trading range are the primary inputs: if oil is already trading near or above $75, the probability would reflect that reality; if it's trading significantly below, the market is pricing in a material rally as more likely than not. The main drivers are near-term supply disruptions, geopolitical events, or demand shifts over this narrow timeframe. Since the resolution date is imminent, the outcome depends almost entirely on price movements within the next week, with limited time for major catalysts to shift sentiment materially.
- ›Current WTI front-month settlement price and distance from $75 threshold as of market close June 24, 2026
- ›Historical volatility of WTI over 6-day windows and whether intraday trading patterns suggest momentum toward or away from $75
- ›Related contract odds showing 53% probability for $78 and 54% for $78.50 threshold, indicating market uncertainty about magnitude of required move
- ›Geopolitical or supply-side news within the final week of June that could trigger short-term price acceleration
- ›Technical support or resistance levels between current price and $75, and trading volume patterns suggesting conviction in either direction
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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