Will Tadej Pogacar win the green jersey at the 2026 Tour de France

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that Tadej Pogacar will win the green jersey—awarded to the Tour de France's most consistent stage finisher—at the 2026 race in July. Pogacar is primarily known as a general classification contender and mountain stage specialist rather than a sprinter, which makes winning the points jersey historically unlikely. The low 15% probability reflects that established sprinters like Jasper Philipsen (30¢) and Mads Pedersen (31¢) are heavily favored. Pogacar's chances would increase significantly if he races an aggressive stage-hunting strategy rather than protecting his overall position, or if top sprinters face mechanical issues or injury. The July 2026 Tour de France will definitively resolve this outcome, with stage results and Pogacar's tactical approach as the primary determinants.

• ›Pogacar's historical profile shows elite performance in mountain and time trial stages rather than bunch sprints, where green jersey points concentrate
• ›Leading sprinter Philipsen and Pedersen are priced at roughly 2x Pogacar's probability, indicating market consensus favors traditional sprint specialists
• ›Pogacar would need to consistently finish in top positions across diverse stage types; team tactics typically prioritize yellow jersey protection over points-stage aggression
• ›Only 9 days remain until the 2026 Tour de France begins, allowing limited time for injury or form changes to materially alter probabilities
• ›The green jersey requires averaging high placements across all 21 stages, not just occasional strong finishes

What moved the line

• Jul 8Mads Pedersen↑37pp4→41¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 9Jasper Philipsen↓25pp35→10¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Tadej Pogacar↑19pp47→66¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Mads Pedersen↓18pp58→40¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 9Mads Pedersen↑17pp41→58¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds