Which city will host the 2026 RNC midterm convention
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 96% across 1 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
96%
1 contract
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
1 contracts
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
123 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Which city will host the 2026 RNC midterm convention
Which city will host the 2026 RNC midterm convention?: Dallas
KXHOSTRNCCONV-26-DALL
Analysis
The Republican National Committee will select a city to host its 2026 midterm convention. Currently, Dallas is priced at 81%, substantially ahead of Las Vegas at 12% and Detroit at 3%. The RNC typically rotates convention locations and considers factors like existing venue capacity, state political importance, and logistics. Dallas has multiple large convention facilities and is located in a key battleground state. The main driver of the current pricing is likely Dallas's established infrastructure and historical precedent of the RNC visiting major Texas cities. The resolution depends on an official RNC announcement, which typically occurs 12-24 months before the convention date. Any scheduling conflicts, venue availability issues, or strategic shifts in party priorities could alter these odds before a final decision is made.
- ›RNC must announce the 2026 midterm convention host city; announcement date and timing unknown but typically follows party leadership decisions
- ›Dallas has major convention facilities (Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center, American Airlines Center) and Texas is a battleground state with significant delegate representation
- ›Las Vegas offers substantial venue capacity and geographic diversity, but competes with Dallas on logistics and state electoral importance
- ›Detroit represents a Rust Belt alternative but currently prices at 3%, suggesting low market confidence relative to the two frontrunners
- ›No scheduled announcement or official bidding process appears imminent as of June 2026, leaving significant uncertainty about the decision timeline
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will the margin of victory for Roberto Sánchez in the 2026 Peru presidential election runoff be between 3% and 6%last 94% · 5d
- What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debatelast 82% · 7d
- Will Christina Blunt be the Republican nominee for CO-02last 33% · 7d
- Who will be the Democratic nominee for Attorney General in Coloradolast 5% · 7d
- Will Ruben Gallego be out as House member before July 2026last 3% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (96% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In election 2026
Related reading
Democrats Heavy House Favorites as Senate Battle Tightens
2026 midterm election markets show Democrats are strong favorites to retake the House at 82¢, while the Senate race is a toss-up with Republicans at 55¢. Key swing states: Michigan Senate leans Democratic (69¢), Maine Senate leans Democratic (63¢), and Texas Senate leans Republican (57¢). The Florida gubernatorial primary is a done deal for Byron Donalds at 96¢.
Graham Platner Dominates Maine Senate Race Markets as Democrats' Best Hope
The Maine Senate race has become the most heavily traded individual election contract, with Graham Platner's dropout probability at just 8% (92¢ that he stays in). Democrats are slight favorites at 59¢, and the outcome is seen as a key battleground for Senate control (Republicans 57¢ to win the chamber).
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.