SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·3 source contracts·Kalshi 3·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 129d

DOGE price on Jan 1, 2027

Leader sits at 41% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 14%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

41%

$0.0600 - $0.0899

runner-up 14¢leader 41¢

Outcomes

3

winner-take-all

Runner-up

14¢

$0.0900 - $0.1199

Spread

27pp

contested

24h volume

$0

thin orderbook

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

129 days

Venue

Kalshi

3 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtoday$0.0600 - $0.0899: 39% (22 days, 21 points)$0.0600 - $0.0899: 39% on 2026-08-25$0.0900 - $0.1199: 15% (22 days, 19 points)$0.0900 - $0.1199: 15% on 2026-08-25
$0.0600 - $0.089939¢$0.0900 - $0.119915¢
Top 2 candidates by current price · 22d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This represents the market's assessment that Dogecoin will trade between $0.0600 and $0.0899 on January 1, 2027, currently assigned a 38% probability. The prediction reflects uncertainty around cryptocurrency volatility and macroeconomic conditions over the next five months. DOGE's price trajectory depends primarily on broader crypto market sentiment, Bitcoin's performance as the leading indicator, and adoption trends. The resolution will depend on the actual spot price at year-end, making this sensitive to major regulatory announcements, institutional adoption news, or significant shifts in risk appetite during Q4 2026. Secondary factors include Dogecoin-specific developments and the overall state of meme-coin trading cycles.

  • DOGE has traded between $0.045–$0.13 during 2024–2025; the predicted range represents mid-point historical performance
  • Bitcoin's price direction typically correlates with altcoin movements; BTC strength or weakness by December 2026 would be the primary driver
  • Regulatory clarity or restriction announcements targeting crypto or meme coins could materially shift trading volumes and price discovery
  • The three-outcome structure shows roughly equal tail-risk pricing ($0.03–0.06 and $0.09–0.12 both at ~13%), suggesting no consensus on extreme outcomes
  • Trading volume at zero suggests minimal recent market activity in these specific contracts, indicating limited price discovery and potential for repricing on fresh liquidity

What moved the line

  • Aug 19$0.0600 - $0.08993pp4643¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 20$0.0600 - $0.08993pp4340¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 20$0.0900 - $0.11993pp69¢ · Kalshi
  • Aug 22$0.0900 - $0.11993pp1114¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: just now.