Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.25 in December 2026
Leader sits at 97% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 95%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $0.50
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
95¢
Above $0.50
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$656
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
175 days
Venue
Kalshi
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.25 in August 2026?: Above $1.25
KXA100MS-26AUG-1.250
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.50 in August 2026?: Above $1.50
KXA100MS-26AUG-1.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.75 in October 2026?: Above $1.75
KXA100MS-26OCT-1.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.00 in July 2026?: Above $1.00
KXA100MS-26JUL-1.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.00 in February 2027?: Above $1.00
KXA100MS-27FEB-1.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $2.00 in October 2026?: Above $2.00
KXA100MS-26OCT-2.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $2.00 in April 2027?: Above $2.00
KXA100MS-27APR-2.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.75 in November 2026?: Above $1.75
KXA100MS-26NOV-1.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.50 in July 2026?: Above $1.50
KXA100MS-26JUL-1.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.75 in February 2027?: Above $0.75
KXA100MS-27FEB-0.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.50 in November 2026?: Above $1.50
KXA100MS-26NOV-1.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.75 in April 2027?: Above $1.75
KXA100MS-27APR-1.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.25 in February 2027?: Above $1.25
KXA100MS-27FEB-1.250
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.75 in July 2027?: Above $1.75
KXA100MS-27JUL-1.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.50 in February 2027?: Above $0.50
KXA100MS-27FEB-0.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $2.00 in January 2027?: Above $2.00
KXA100MS-27JAN-2.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.50 in September 2026?: Above $0.50
KXA100MS-26SEP-0.500
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $1.00 in August 2026?: Above $1.00
KXA100MS-26AUG-1.000
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.75 in November 2026?: Above $0.75
KXA100MS-26NOV-0.750
Will the monthly average compute price of NVIDIA's A100 be above $0.50 in November 2026?: Above $0.50
KXA100MS-26NOV-0.500
Analysis
This contract reflects a 91% probability that NVIDIA's A100 GPU will trade at an average monthly price above $1.25 in December 2026. The high confidence suggests markets expect sustained demand and stable pricing for the A100 through year-end, despite ongoing competition from newer GPU architectures. The probability is driven primarily by current A100 pricing trends and expectations for enterprise datacenter adoption, though future GPU supply dynamics and shifts toward newer models like the H100 or B100 could pressure prices downward. The key uncertainty resolves in December 2026 when actual monthly average pricing is calculated, but interim data releases on datacenter GPU demand and NVIDIA's product roadmap announcements between now and then will provide early signals about whether the A100 sustains this price threshold.
- ›Current spot prices for A100 compute access are already near or above $1.25 per unit, making the threshold easily attainable under status quo conditions
- ›Continued enterprise datacenter buildout and GPU scarcity in certain regions could maintain or elevate prices through December 2026
- ›Availability of competing architectures (H100, B100, or third-party alternatives) at lower cost could erode A100 demand and prices below the $1.25 level
- ›August 2026 pricing data will provide a real-time test of the market's assumption; the runner-up contract at 86% shows traders expect prices to remain elevated in near-term months
- ›Supply chain disruptions or unexpected demand surges could shift the outcome, but current volatility metrics ($45 24h volume on the December contract) suggest confidence in the forecast
What moved the line
- Jul 7Above $1.00↓57pp59→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2Above $0.50↑48pp21→69¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2Above $1.00↑47pp23→70¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Above $1.00↑44pp2→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 2Above $1.00↑40pp20→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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