Will Domino's Pizza Inc report Above 1% us stores same store sales growth in Q2 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects traders' assessment that Domino's US same-store sales will grow above 1% in the second quarter of 2026. Same-store sales growth is a core metric of restaurant performance, indicating whether existing locations are generating more revenue year-over-year after accounting for inflation and new openings. Current pricing of 68 cents on Kalshi (68% implied probability) suggests traders view the bar of 1% growth as moderately achievable but not certain. The outcome depends on consumer spending patterns, competitive pricing in the QSR sector, and Domino's pricing strategies during the quarter. Domino's will report Q2 results in late July 2026, resolving this contract. Factors traders likely weigh include labor cost pressures, commodity inflation trends, and whether promotional activity supports traffic without eroding margins.

• ›Domino's Q2 2026 same-store sales growth rate relative to 1% threshold will be reported in company earnings, typically late July 2026
• ›Year-over-year same-store sales comparisons depend on Q2 2025 baseline performance and whether 2026 consumer spending holds steady or contracts
• ›Rising labor costs and ingredient prices in 2026 could pressure margins, potentially forcing pricing actions that affect traffic and same-store sales growth
• ›Competitive QSR pricing and promotional intensity during April-June 2026 will influence whether Domino's achieves volume growth above inflation
• ›The contract structure shows 68-cent pricing for the 1% threshold but only 8-17 cents for higher store counts, suggesting traders see growth above 1% as uncertain relative to store expansion

What moved the line

• Jul 10Above 1%↑41pp27→68¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Above 1.5%↑35pp22→57¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Above 2%↑24pp17→41¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Above 2.5%↑15pp12→27¢ · Kalshi
• Jul 10Above 7255↓8pp16→8¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds