Will Michael J. Fox win Outstanding Guest Actor In A Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 39% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
39%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
15 contracts
Closes
Sep 14, 2027
383 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
15 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Tie win Outstanding Variety Series at the Emmy Awards
Will Tie win Outstanding Variety Series at the Emmy Awards?: Tie
KXEMMY-VS26SEP14-TIE
Cluster 2
Will Hamish Linklater win Outstanding Guest Actor In A Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 3
Will Survivor win Outstanding Reality Competition Program at the Emmy Awards
Will Survivor win Outstanding Reality Competition Program at the Emmy Awards?: Survivor
KXEMMY-RCP26SEP14-SUR
Cluster 4
Will Hiro Murai win Outstanding Directing For A Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards
Will Hiro Murai win Outstanding Directing For A Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards?: Hiro Murai
KXEMMY-OUT26SEP14-HIR
Cluster 5
Will Colman Domingo win Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 6
Will Alan Cumming win Outstanding Host For A Reality Or Reality Competition Program at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 7
Will Shailene Woodley win Outstanding Guest Actress in a Drama Series at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 8
Will Ernest Harden, Jr. win Outstanding Guest Actor in a Drama Series at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 9
Will The Late Show with Stephen Colbert win Outstanding Variety Series at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 10
Will DTF St. Louis win Outstanding Writing For A Limited Or Anthology Series Or Movie at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 11
Will Rob Reiner win Outstanding Guest Actor In A Comedy Series at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 12
Will Last Week Tonight with John Oliver win Outstanding Variety Series at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 13
Will The Apple Music Super Bowl LX Halftime Show Starring Bad Bunny win Outstanding Variety Special (Live) at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 14
Will SubwayTakes With Kareem Rahma win Outstanding Short Form Comedy, Drama Or Variety Series at the Emmy Awards
Cluster 15
Will The Traitors win Outstanding Reality Competition Program at the Emmy Awards
Will The Traitors win Outstanding Reality Competition Program at the Emmy Awards?: The Traitors
KXEMMY-RCP26SEP14-TRA
Analysis
This reflects a 6% estimated probability that Michael J. Fox will win the Emmy Award for Outstanding Guest Actor in a Comedy Series. The low probability suggests market participants view him as a longshot relative to other contenders. Fox's actual Emmy eligibility depends on his specific guest appearances during the voting period, his role prominence, and how his candidacy stacks against an established field of recurring or guest performers in comedy. The Emmy Awards ceremony scheduled for September 2026 will determine the winner, resolving this market. Prior to that, the official Emmy nominee announcement will clarify whether Fox receives a nomination at all—a critical data point that would substantially shift expectations. Guest acting categories typically feature strong competition from established character actors with recent high-profile appearances.
- ›Fox's specific guest appearances and screen time during the 2025-2026 voting period determine basic eligibility
- ›Competition from other guest actors with recent, prominent roles in comedies likely influences the relative 6% baseline
- ›Official Emmy nomination announcement before the September 2026 ceremony will provide definitive information about Fox's candidacy
- ›Historical voting patterns in this category and the size of the eligible nominee pool affect probability calculus
- ›Fox's name recognition and career legacy may influence voter perception independently of recent comedy work
What moved the line
- Aug 23Alan Cumming↑12pp59→71¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22The Traitors↑12pp72→84¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Hiro Murai↑10pp52→62¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20The Late Show with Stephen Colbert↑9pp58→67¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23DTF St. Louis↓7pp39→32¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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