Will Ben Stiller attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 1
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 61% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
61%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$84K
18 contracts
Closes
Jun 9, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Donald J Trump attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 2
Will Bad Bunny attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 3
Will Kylie Jenner attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 4
Will Gregg Popovich attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 5
Will Zohran Mamdani attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 6
Will Ben Stiller attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 7
Will Selena Gomez attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 8
Will Tracy Morgan attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 9
Will Tim Duncan attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 10
Will Jaxson Dart attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 11
Will Adam Sandler attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 12
Will Pete Davidson attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 13
Will Carmelo Anthony attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 14
Will Timothée Chalamet attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 15
Will Jimmy Fallon attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 16
Will Jason Bateman attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 17
Will Patrick Ewing attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Cluster 18
Will Chris Rock attend Pro Basketball Finals Game 3: New York vs. San Antonio in 2026
Analysis
This market estimates a 62% probability that actor Ben Stiller will attend Game 1 of the 2026 NBA Finals between New York and San Antonio. The probability reflects typical celebrity attendance patterns at high-profile sporting events, balanced against competing schedule conflicts and personal preferences. Celebrity attendance at Finals games varies significantly based on several factors: personal connections to the teams or players involved, filming schedules, prior commitment patterns, and geographic convenience. The single largest determinant will be whether the Finals occur as scheduled and Ben Stiller's availability during that specific date window. Comparable markets show wide variance—Jason Bateman prices 77 cents while Jimmy Fallon trades at just 3 cents—suggesting individual preference and social networks drive these estimates rather than a uniform celebrity attendance baseline. Resolution depends entirely on documented attendance records from official Game 1 proceedings.
- ›No publicly stated preference by Ben Stiller for NBA or specific team involvement provides baseline context for his typical attendance rate
- ›Geographic proximity matters: the Finals location (New York hosts Game 1) affects likelihood compared to neutral venues
- ›Filming schedules for Stiller's current and upcoming projects during the Finals date range would directly enable or prevent attendance
- ›Historical precedent: documented instances of Stiller attending live sporting events can establish baseline behavioral patterns
- ›Official attendance records and game footage will definitively resolve whether he attends, making this directly verifiable
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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