Winner-take-all answer·6 source contracts·Kalshi 6·refreshed just now

Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Oct 16, 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 22% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 22%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

22%

Before Dec 1, 2026

0¢runner-up 22¢leader 22¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

22¢

Before Nov 1, 2026

Spread

0pp

contested

24h volume

thin orderbook

Closes

—

not derived

Venue

Kalshi

6 bound

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 202622¢$0 Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 202622¢$0 Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Nov 16, 2026?: Before Nov 16, 202622¢$0 Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Oct 16, 2026?: Before Oct 16, 20268¢$0

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before

6 contracts$0

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Oct 16, 2026?: Before Oct 16, 2026

KXGEMINI-NEXTFLASH-26OCT16

8¢—$0K→

Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026

KXGEMINI-NEXTFLASH-26OCT01

6¢—$0K→

Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Nov 16, 2026?: Before Nov 16, 2026

KXGEMINI-NEXTFLASH-26NOV16

22¢—$0K→

Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026

KXGEMINI-NEXTFLASH-26NOV01

22¢—$0K→

Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026

KXGEMINI-NEXTFLASH-26DEC01

22¢—$0K→

Will Google release next Gemini Flash model before Sep 16, 2026?: Before Sep 16, 2026

KXGEMINI-NEXTFLASH-26SEP16

5¢—$0K→

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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