What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th
Leader sits at 51% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 50%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Cursor
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
50¢
Tesla
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$45K
liquid
Closes
Aug 19, 2026
14 days
Venue
Kalshi
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Nvidia
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-NVID
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Cursor
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-CURS
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Mars
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-MARS
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Colossus
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-COLO
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Merge / Merger
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-MERG
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Tesla
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-TESL
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: China / Chinese
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-CHIN
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Consciousness
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-CONS
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Anthropic / OpenAI
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-ANTH
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Optimus
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-OPTI
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: Artemis
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-ARTE
What will Elon Musk say during SpaceX Earnings Call originally scheduled for August 4th?: ISS / International Space Station
KXELONMENTION-26AUG04-ISS
Analysis
This prediction measures the probability that Elon Musk will discuss artificial intelligence or machine learning topics during a SpaceX earnings call scheduled for August 4th, 2026. The 83% probability reflects strong market confidence that AI will be a focal point of his remarks. This high level likely reflects Musk's consistent emphasis on AI across his companies and SpaceX's integration of autonomous systems in rocket operations. The probability could shift based on whether the call proceeds as scheduled and Musk's actual remarks during the event. The call itself, if held on August 4th, serves as the concrete resolution event. Secondary topics like satellite operations and Starbase development are priced substantially lower, suggesting traders view AI as the dominant likely topic relative to other operational areas Musk might emphasize.
- ›Musk has publicly prioritized AI development at his companies; historical statements on autonomous systems and machine learning suggest consistent messaging patterns
- ›SpaceX's operational reliance on autonomous flight systems and landing procedures makes AI a technically relevant topic for earnings discussion
- ›The 83% contract price substantially exceeds secondary outcomes (63% for satellites, 52% for Colossus), indicating concentrated market conviction rather than distributed expectations
- ›The earnings call is scheduled for August 4th, 2026—today's date—meaning resolution occurs imminently through direct observation of the call's content
- ›Recent 24-hour trading volume of $2,993 on the leading contract suggests active reassessment of probabilities near the resolution date
What moved the line
- Aug 4Optimus↓26pp60→34¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Mars↓20pp73→53¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Colossus↓16pp54→38¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Artemis↓13pp35→22¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Consciousness↑10pp9→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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