Will SpaceX report Above 18 million starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 15 million
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Above 15.5 million
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
May 16, 2027
216 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will SpaceX report Above 1
Will SpaceX report Above 16.5 million starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 16.5 million
KXSPCXA-27FEBSUBS-16500000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 19 million starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 19 million
KXSPCXA-27FEBSUBS-19000000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 18.5 million starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 18.5 million
KXSPCXA-27FEBSUBS-18500000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 18 million starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 18 million
KXSPCXA-27FEBSUBS-18000000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 17.5 million starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 17.5 million
KXSPCXA-27FEBSUBS-17500000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 17 million starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 17 million
KXSPCXA-27FEBSUBS-17000000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 16 million starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 16 million
KXSPCXA-27FEBSUBS-16000000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 15.5 million starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 15.5 million
KXSPCXA-27FEBSUBS-15500000.0
Will SpaceX report Above 15 million starlink active subscribers in fiscal 2026?: Above 15 million
KXSPCXA-27FEBSUBS-15000000.0
Analysis
This probability reflects market confidence that SpaceX's Starlink division will report more than 18 million active subscribers by the end of fiscal 2026. The 91% probability on the 15 million threshold, declining to 37% for 17 million, suggests strong expected growth but meaningful uncertainty at higher subscription levels. Growth rates and churn patterns in the satellite internet market are primary drivers—faster adoption in new markets or accelerated deployment in existing regions would push estimates higher, while competitive pressures or slower-than-expected uptake would lower them. The resolution depends on SpaceX's official financial disclosure or subscriber reporting, typically expected in early 2027 following fiscal year close. Market pricing reflects confidence in substantial subscriber growth from current levels but increasing skepticism about reaching the most aggressive targets.
- ›Current Starlink subscriber count (approximately 10 million as of mid-2024) compared to historical quarterly growth rates of 15-25%
- ›Expansion progress in regions with high growth potential, including Latin America, Africa, and rural US markets where competitive intensity varies
- ›Competitive dynamics with OneWeb, Amazon Kuiper, and terrestrial broadband improvements affecting addressable market size and churn
- ›Pricing strategy and service reliability metrics that influence both subscriber acquisition and retention rates
- ›SpaceX's disclosure methodology and timing—whether subscriber counts are reported and audited in fiscal-year earnings or alternative channels
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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