OpenAI market share this week
Leader sits at 93% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 15%
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
Above 15.5%
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Aug 17, 2026
3 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
OpenAI market share this week
OpenAI market share this week?: Above 17%
KXOPENSHARE-OPEN-17
OpenAI market share this week?: Above 17.5%
KXOPENSHARE-OPEN-17.5
OpenAI market share this week?: Above 16.5%
KXOPENSHARE-OPEN-16.5
OpenAI market share this week?: Above 15%
KXOPENSHARE-OPEN-15
OpenAI market share this week?: Above 16%
KXOPENSHARE-OPEN-16
OpenAI market share this week?: Above 15.5%
KXOPENSHARE-OPEN-15.5
Analysis
This probability indicates traders see a 93% chance that OpenAI holds the largest market share in AI services this week, based on aggregated pricing from six contracts on Kalshi. The current level reflects confidence in OpenAI's existing customer base and product adoption, though substantial uncertainty remains around competitor gains or market consolidation. Key drivers include reported usage metrics, enterprise contract announcements, and competitive product releases from rivals like Anthropic, Google, and Meta. Resolution will depend on how market share is measured—typically revenue, active users, or API call volume—and the specific reference week chosen. Upcoming analyst reports, earnings statements, or major contract wins could shift the probability meaningfully, as could significant improvements in competitor offerings or pricing changes that affect market dynamics.
- ›The probability reflects a 93% leader price from six separate winner-take-all contracts, not an average—indicating substantial but not overwhelming consensus among traders
- ›Recent competitor product launches or feature parity claims would lower this probability if they demonstrably capture market share during the measured week
- ›The specific definition of market share (revenue vs. active users vs. API volume) will determine which company qualifies as leader and affects how traders price uncertainty
- ›Any material contract win or loss announced during the week could shift the outcome, particularly for large enterprises or government agencies
- ›Historical pricing patterns on these contracts show 6-7 point spreads between leader and runner-up, suggesting traders see real but concentrated uncertainty around leadership
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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