Will Input Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $1.00/MTok in 2026
Leader sits at 25% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$1.25/MTok or below
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
$1.00/MTok or below
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$60
thin orderbook
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
280 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Input Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $
Will Input Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $1.25/MTok in 2026?: $1.25/MTok or below
KXGEMINI35Y-27-NA-1.25
Will Input Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $1.00/MTok in 2026?: $1.00/MTok or below
KXGEMINI35Y-27-NA-1.00
Will Input Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $0.75/MTok in 2026?: $0.75/MTok or below
KXGEMINI35Y-27-NA-0.75
Will Input Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $0.50/MTok in 2026?: $0.50/MTok or below
KXGEMINI35Y-27-NA-0.50
Analysis
This market estimates the likelihood that Google's Gemini 3.5 Flash input token price will remain at or below $1.00 per million tokens through 2026, currently priced at 34%. The probability reflects uncertainty about Google's pricing strategy for its faster, more cost-efficient model variant. Two main drivers shape current sentiment: (1) competitive pressure from other LLM providers who have aggressively cut inference costs, and (2) Google's historical pattern of maintaining price premiums for newer model versions before eventual reductions. The market shows material skepticism—traders assign only a 25% chance the price stays this low, suggesting expectations that Google will price Gemini 3.5 Flash at a modest premium above this threshold. Resolution depends on Google's official pricing announcement and any publicly communicated rate changes before December 2026. If competing models or market demand trigger price wars, downward pressure would increase; conversely, differentiated performance could justify holding prices higher.
- ›Google's current pricing for Gemini 3.5 Flash and any publicly announced pricing structure relative to the $1.00/MTok threshold
- ›Competitor pricing actions by OpenAI, Anthropic, and Meta for comparable inference-optimized models
- ›Evidence of market-driven price compression or Google's stated strategy regarding pricing tiers and cost reduction timelines
- ›Google's historical pricing evolution for Gemini variants—whether new models typically launch at premiums or competitive parity
- ›Volume and adoption signals for Gemini 3.5 Flash that might influence Google's willingness to compete on price
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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