How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Leader sits at 9% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 8%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 58
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
8¢
Above 62
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$431
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
102 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 60
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T60
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 62
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T62
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 58
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T58
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 50
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T50
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 64
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T64
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 55
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T55
Analysis
This reflects the current market-implied probability that more than 50 U.S. Senate members will vote in favor of a cryptocurrency market structure bill. At 9%, traders assess passage with substantial skepticism, suggesting meaningful legislative headwinds. The low probability likely reflects partisan divides over crypto regulation, competing legislative priorities, and uncertainty about whether any bill would secure bipartisan support sufficient to reach a simple majority. Upward pressure would come from explicit bipartisan sponsorship or floor scheduling signals. Downward pressure could follow procedural obstacles, competing bills, or statements from key voting blocs signaling opposition. Resolution depends on an actual Senate floor vote occurring on the defined bill.
- ›Current Senate composition and demonstrated willingness of either party to prioritize crypto market structure legislation above competing priorities
- ›Existence and status of co-sponsored legislation that meets the KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE definition; absence of a formal bill would make passage impossible
- ›Statements or voting record signals from swing-vote senators indicating support for or opposition to regulatory frameworks within the bill's scope
- ›Competing legislative demands and calendar availability in the Senate for floor time allocation
- ›Status of House passage or committee advancement of related crypto market structure bills that might indicate trajectory toward Senate floor consideration
What moved the line
- Sep 17Above 50↓27pp32→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 58↓21pp27→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 55↓21pp27→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 60↓19pp26→7¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Above 62↓11pp17→6¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
- Will Left Party be the sole party with the seventh-highest nationwide valid-vote share in the Swedish Election Authority's final certified result for the 2026 Riksdag electionlast 13% · 1d
- Will the margin of victory for Graham Platner in the 2026 Maine Democratic Senate primary be between 30% and 40%last 97% · 2d
- Will the margin of victory for Mike Mazzei in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican Governor runoff be at least 6%last 97% · 2d
- Will the total count of candidates endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA), including local chapters, who win a 2026 federal primary election scheduled on or after June 25, 2026 be above 10 primary elections scheduled on or after June 25, 2026last 46% · 3d
- Who will win the 2026 Providence, RI mayoral electionlast 82% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
Midterm 2026 Markets Surge with Over 300 Contracts and $4M+ Volume
The 2026 midterm cycle is heating up with high-volume markets on House, Senate, and gubernatorial races. The current probabilities suggest a competitive environment, with key swing states like Texas, Iowa, and Michigan drawing the most action.
Democrats heavily favored to flip the House; Texas Senate race a key upset risk
The House control market shows a 10¢ vs 89¢ split for Republicans vs Democrats, implying a 9-to-1 probability of a Democratic majority. Texas' Senate race is more competitive, with the Democratic candidate at 57¢.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.