How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
Leader sits at 36% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 50
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Above 55
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$846
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
149 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 50
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T50
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 58
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T58
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 66
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T66
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 64
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T64
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 62
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T62
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 60
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T60
How many Senate members will vote Yea on a crypto market structure bill (as defined in KXCRYPTOSTRUCTURE)?: Above 55
KXVOTECLARITY-26MAY16-T55
Analysis
This measures the likelihood that a Senate crypto market structure bill will receive at least 56 votes (simple majority plus one). The 4% probability reflects significant skepticism about passage. Crypto-related legislation typically faces partisan division and competing regulatory philosophies; support would require either bipartisan consensus or substantial party-line voting. The main factors pushing probabilities lower include fragmented Senate opinion on crypto oversight and the legislative calendar's competing priorities. Upward pressure would come from narrowed bill language gaining broader appeal or demonstration of urgent market need. Resolution depends on whether such a bill reaches a floor vote and, if scheduled, its actual vote count. Current low volume and stable pricing suggest limited market interest or conviction in near-term legislative movement on this specific proposal.
- ›Senate Democrats and Republicans have historically divided on crypto regulation scope and enforcement authority, making 56+ votes a high threshold without significant compromise language
- ›The bill must advance through committee and floor scheduling, which requires leadership prioritization amid competing legislative demands
- ›Recent crypto market volatility and regulatory clarity needs could shift urgency and support levels among voting members
- ›Bipartisan working groups on crypto framework have produced varied outcomes; consensus on market structure specifics remains unclear as of May 2026
- ›A floor vote would directly resolve the contract; absence of scheduled voting within the current session would effectively cap passage probability
What moved the line
- Jul 31Above 50↓13pp51→38¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 31Above 55↓12pp47→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above 58↓10pp47→37¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30Above 60↓9pp31→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 29Above 58↑7pp40→47¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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