Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?
Leader sits at 54% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 47%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
0.1-0.3%
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
47¢
0.4-0.6%
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jul 30, 2026
41 days
Venue
Polymarket
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026
Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 0.1-0.3%
0x001397…e681
Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?: ≤0.0%
0xb895a7…71ca
Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 0.4-0.6%
0xb3db29…a56e
Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 1.3%+
0x644762…351c
Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 0.7-0.9%
0x5cfd72…8cf1
Germany GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 1.0-1.2%
0x0df2be…2668
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that German GDP will grow at least 1.3% in the second quarter of 2026. Markets currently expect slower growth instead, with the leading outcome pricing in stagnation or contraction (≤0.0%). Germany's growth trajectory depends on whether consumer spending and industrial production accelerate from recent levels, or continue to face headwinds from higher energy costs and weak external demand. The decisive data point will be the official GDP estimate for Q2 2026, released by Destatis (Germany's statistics office) in mid-August 2026. This figures into broader European economic conditions and potential ECB policy responses, making the outcome relevant for eurozone forecasts.
- ›Q1 2026 German GDP growth baseline: actual reported growth rate will establish whether momentum exists for 1.3%+ achievement in Q2
- ›Energy import prices and manufacturing PMI through June 2026: sustained decline or spike would materially shift growth expectations in either direction
- ›Consumer confidence indices and retail sales data: visible weakness here would reduce probability of 1.3%+ threshold significantly
- ›Destatis preliminary vs. final GDP releases: revisions between August and September 2026 could alter contract settlement amounts if outcomes are on margins
- ›Eurozone-wide demand indicators: external demand conditions in France, Italy, and broader EU affect German export-dependent sectors disproportionately
What moved the line
- Jun 16≤0.0%↑13pp25→38¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 181.0-1.2%↑9pp36→45¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 18≤0.0%↑7pp33→40¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 171.3%+↓6pp46→40¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 171.0-1.2%↓5pp41→36¢ · Polymarket
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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