Will Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau win more major tournaments in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 32% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
32%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$678
3 contracts
Closes
Sep 28, 2026
77 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 7% of their title tokens — “Will Jannik Sinner” vs “Will Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau win more major tournaments in 2026”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Jannik Sinner
Will Jannik Sinner win more major tournaments in 2026?: Jannik Sinner
KXGOLFTENNISMAJORS-26-SIN
Will Jannik Sinner have the same amount of major tournament wins in 2026 as Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau?: Tie
KXGOLFTENNISMAJORS-26-TIE
Cluster 2
Will Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, and Bryson DeChambeau win more major tournaments in 2026
Analysis
This market asks whether Scheffler, McIlroy, and DeChambeau collectively win more major championships in 2026 than they did in 2025. The 35% probability reflects skepticism that this trio will increase their major title count this year. Market pricing suggests traders view 2025 as a high baseline—Scheffler in particular won multiple majors last year, making repeat or increased success less likely statistically. The main driver of the current probability is regression to the mean; elite golfers rarely sustain peak performance across consecutive seasons. Upcoming major championships (Masters in April, PGA Championship in May, U.S. Open in June, Open Championship in July) will incrementally resolve this question. Current volume concentrates on Scheffler's near-term performance, particularly the Cadillac Championship and PGA Championship outcomes, suggesting these events serve as leading indicators for how markets will reprice the broader season.
- ›Scheffler won 3 majors in 2025; markets price a <20% chance he wins the PGA Championship, suggesting traders expect regression from his 2025 pace
- ›McIlroy and DeChambeau show single-digit major championship win probabilities in available Kalshi contracts, indicating low expected contribution to the trio's combined total
- ›The collective 35% probability implies the market estimates approximately 0-1 major wins combined for all three players in 2026, down from their 2025 results
- ›High volume on Scheffler top-5 and top-10 finishes (85-95¢) versus major wins (10-19¢) indicates traders expect him to compete without winning majors
- ›Major championships occur on fixed dates; April-July 2026 events will provide decisive data; no unresolved uncertainty remains after the Open Championship in July
What moved the line
- Jul 8Jannik Sinner↑28pp19→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Tie↑17pp13→30¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Jannik Sinner↓7pp26→19¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 13Tie↑7pp29→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 13Jannik Sinner↑3pp48→51¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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