2026 Grammy nominees for Best New Artist

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents the aggregated market assessment that Ella Langley will be nominated for a Grammy Award in the Best New Artist category at the 2027 Grammy Awards ceremony (for music released in 2026). At 91%, traders are pricing in a high probability of her nomination, with substantially lower odds assigned to other artists like Geese (63%) and Megan Moroney (43%). The Grammy nomination announcement, typically occurring in November, serves as the key resolution event. Market participants are likely weighing Ella Langley's chart performance, streaming metrics, industry visibility, and radio play throughout 2026 against the broader field of eligible artists. The significant gap between the leading candidate and runners-up suggests conviction around Langley's commercial momentum, though Grammy voting remains opaque and can surprise analysts.

• ›Ella Langley's streaming volume, chart positions, and radio airplay in 2026 relative to other emerging artists
• ›The Recording Academy's historical nomination patterns for country and crossover artists in the Best New Artist category
• ›Competitive field dynamics: whether other nominated artists gain market share as 2026 progresses and new releases enter consideration
• ›Major label support, award season campaign visibility, and industry narrative around Langley versus competitors
• ›Grammy nomination announcement scheduled for November 2026, which will definitively resolve the uncertainty

What moved the line

• Sep 24Dominic Fike↑59pp7→66¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Adéla↓52pp56→4¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Dominic Fike↓42pp66→24¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Geese↑22pp29→51¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18SIENNA SPIRO↑19pp63→82¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds