Will Grindr Inc. report Above 1.42 million average paying users in fiscal 2026
Leader sits at 63% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 1.42 million
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
Above 1.44 million
Spread
23pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
May 27, 2027
273 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Grindr Inc. report Above 1.4
Will Grindr Inc. report Above 1.42 million average paying users in fiscal 2026?: Above 1.42 million
KXGRNDA-27FEBAPU-1420000
Will Grindr Inc. report Above 1.48 million average paying users in fiscal 2026?: Above 1.48 million
KXGRNDA-27FEBAPU-1480000
Will Grindr Inc. report Above 1.46 million average paying users in fiscal 2026?: Above 1.46 million
KXGRNDA-27FEBAPU-1460000
Will Grindr Inc. report Above 1.44 million average paying users in fiscal 2026?: Above 1.44 million
KXGRNDA-27FEBAPU-1440000
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Grindr will report average paying users above 1.42 million in fiscal 2026. The 65% confidence suggests traders view this threshold as more likely than not, though still uncertain. User growth in the dating app sector depends on competitive positioning, retention rates, and monetization strategy effectiveness. Grindr's ability to convert free users to paid subscriptions and maintain engagement will be central. The resolution hinges on the company's official fiscal 2026 financial reporting, typically released in early 2027, which will disclose audited average paying user metrics. Market pricing across the contract ladder (declining from 66¢ at 1.42M to 3¢ at 1.5M) suggests declining confidence in higher thresholds, indicating traders view growth beyond 1.42M as progressively less probable.
- ›Grindr's historical subscriber growth rate and trends in reported paying users from prior fiscal years
- ›Competitive dynamics with other dating platforms and their ability to attract and retain paying subscribers in overlapping markets
- ›Monetization changes or pricing adjustments Grindr implements during fiscal 2026 that affect conversion rates from free to paid users
- ›Market saturation and demographic shifts in the core user base affecting willingness to pay for premium features
- ›Official fiscal 2026 financial disclosures published by the company, which will determine the actual reported average paying user count
What moved the line
- Aug 21Above 1.42 million↑14pp50→64¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 1.42 million↑9pp41→50¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 1.44 million↑8pp33→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 1.44 million↑7pp26→33¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 1.46 million↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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