Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Aug 21, 2026
Leader sits at 96% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 86%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Oct 16, 2026
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
86¢
Before Oct 1, 2026
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$7K
modest
Closes
Oct 16, 2026
34 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Sep 18, 2026?: Before Sep 18, 2026
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26SEP18
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26OCT01
Will SpaceX launch another Starship before Oct 16, 2026?: Before Oct 16, 2026
KXSPACEXSTARSHIP-14-26OCT16
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 17% probability that SpaceX will launch another Starship by August 21, 2026—just three weeks away. The low probability reflects the tight timeline and SpaceX's historical launch cadence. Key drivers include the current state of launch infrastructure, any ongoing technical issues from recent tests, regulatory approvals, and available launch windows. The probability increases substantially to 42% for September 1st and 74% for September 18th, suggesting markets expect meaningful delays beyond the immediate August window. The main catalyst is whether SpaceX completes preflight checks and receives clearance for a launch attempt in the next 21 days. If no launch occurs by late August, the focus shifts to whether September brings operational readiness or points to more substantial delays pushing timelines into October.
- ›SpaceX's Starship launch cadence in 2026 and current vehicle readiness status
- ›Outstanding technical or regulatory approvals required for the next scheduled launch attempt
- ›Historical turnaround time between Starship tests and whether recent launches identified issues requiring extended repair
- ›Available launch windows at Starbase and any weather or facility constraints in late August
- ›Market's probabilistic gap between Aug 21 (17%) and Oct 16 (87%) reflects expected 6-week launch window rather than imminent readiness
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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