Will OpenAI release Astra before Aug 21, 2026
Leader sits at 86% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 78%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 1, 2026
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
78¢
Before Oct 1, 2026
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
100 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will OpenAI release Astra before
Will OpenAI release Astra before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA-26SEP01
Will OpenAI release Astra before Sep 18, 2026?: Before Sep 18, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA-26SEP18
Will OpenAI release Astra before Oct 16, 2026?: Before Oct 16, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA-26OCT16
Will OpenAI release Astra before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA-26OCT01
Will OpenAI release Astra before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA-26NOV01
Analysis
The 87% probability reflects trader expectations that OpenAI will announce Astra before December 1, 2026, though near-term releases by August 21 trade much lower at 14%. The high longer-term probability suggests broad confidence in a release within the five-month window, likely anchored on recent product cycles and OpenAI's typical announcement patterns. However, the steep discount for earlier deadlines indicates skepticism about an imminent August launch. The main driver would be any official OpenAI announcement or leak confirming a specific release date. Traders appear to be pricing in moderate delays from initial expectations while maintaining confidence the product reaches market within the calendar year, with mid-September to October representing the modal window based on contract pricing.
- ›OpenAI has not publicly committed to an Astra release date as of early August 2026, leaving room for delays or acceleration
- ›The 14-cent price for pre-August 21 release versus 87-cent price for pre-December 1 suggests traders expect the announcement in Q4 2026 or early beyond, not imminently
- ›Historical OpenAI product cycles and developer conference schedules would influence when Astra could credibly launch
- ›Total 24-hour volume is concentrated in near-term contracts ($1,388 on September 18 deadline), indicating active uncertainty about timing rather than settled conviction
- ›A formal announcement, demo, or leaked roadmap from OpenAI would be the primary event to shift these probabilities
What moved the line
- Aug 17Before Nov 1, 2026↓26pp89→63¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Before Nov 1, 2026↑26pp60→86¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Before Oct 16, 2026↓24pp84→60¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Before Oct 16, 2026↓24pp60→36¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Before Oct 16, 2026↑15pp69→84¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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