Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Sep 25, 2026
Leader sits at 31% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 27%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 13, 2026
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
27¢
Before Nov 6, 2026
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$78
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 13, 2026
54 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 30, 2026?: Before Oct 30, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA61-26OCT30
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 13, 2026?: Before Nov 13, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA61-26NOV13
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Nov 6, 2026?: Before Nov 6, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA61-26NOV06
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 23, 2026?: Before Oct 23, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA61-26OCT23
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 16, 2026?: Before Oct 16, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA61-26OCT16
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 9, 2026?: Before Oct 9, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA61-26OCT09
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Oct 2, 2026?: Before Oct 2, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA61-26OCT02
Will OpenAI release Astra 6.1 before Sep 25, 2026?: Before Sep 25, 2026
KXGPT-ASTRA61-26SEP25
Analysis
Markets currently assign a 29% probability that OpenAI will release Astra 6.1 before November 6, 2026. The contract structure reveals traders expect the release more likely in early November than in the next few weeks—only 6% odds for an October 9 release versus 29% for November 6. This gap suggests market participants believe OpenAI will take additional time before deploying this version, though significant uncertainty remains. The key driver is OpenAI's historical release cadence and whether internal testing milestones are met on schedule. Major catalyst events would include official announcements from OpenAI, leaked documentation about readiness status, or the actual release announcement itself, which would resolve all contracts simultaneously.
- ›Contract pricing shows 23-percentage-point gap between October 23 release odds (22¢) and November 6 odds (29¢), indicating traders expect delay beyond late October
- ›Zero trading volume across all contracts in past 24 hours suggests low market engagement and potentially stale pricing
- ›October 9 contract priced at only 6¢ implies very low confidence in near-term release despite current date being September 19
- ›OpenAI's previous release schedule and stated development roadmap would need to be publicly available to validate when version milestones are credibly expected
- ›November 6 deadline is 48 days away, providing substantial runway for either acceleration (raising probabilities) or delay announcements (lowering them)
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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