Will Beyoncé be a a headliner at Stagecoach 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2027
494 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will A$AP Rocky be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will A$AP Rocky be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: A$AP Rocky
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-ASA
Cluster 2
Will Billie Eilish be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Billie Eilish be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Billie Eilish
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-BIL
Cluster 3
Will Coldplay be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Coldplay be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Coldplay
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-COL
Cluster 4
Will Fred again.. be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Fred again.. be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Fred again..
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-FRE
Cluster 5
Will GRiZ be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will GRiZ be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: GRiZ
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-GRI
Cluster 6
Will Justice be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Justice be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Justice
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-JUS
Cluster 7
Will Kendrick Lamar be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Kendrick Lamar be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Kendrick Lamar
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-KEN
Cluster 8
Will Lana Del Rey be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Lana Del Rey be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Lana Del Rey
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-LAN
Cluster 9
Will LCD Soundsystem be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will LCD Soundsystem be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: LCD Soundsystem
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-LCD
Cluster 10
Will My Chemical Romance be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Cluster 11
Will Odesza be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Odesza be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Odesza
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-ODE
Cluster 12
Will Olivia Rodrigo be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Olivia Rodrigo be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Olivia Rodrigo
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-OLI
Cluster 13
Will Pearl Jam be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Pearl Jam be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Pearl Jam
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-PEA
Cluster 14
Will Phish be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Phish be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Phish
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-PHI
Cluster 15
Will Radiohead be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Radiohead be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Radiohead
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-RAD
Cluster 16
Will Tame Impala be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Tame Impala be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Tame Impala
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-TAM
Cluster 17
Will Travis Scott be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Travis Scott be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Travis Scott
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-TRA
Cluster 18
Will Tyler, The Creator be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Cluster 19
Will Vampire Weekend be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Vampire Weekend be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Vampire Weekend
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-VAM
Cluster 20
Will Zach Bryan be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027
Will Zach Bryan be a headliner at Bonnaroo Music & Arts Festival 2027?: Zach Bryan
KXHEADLINE-BON27DEC31-ZAC
Analysis
This contract estimates an 8% chance that Beyoncé will headline Stagecoach festival in 2027. The low probability reflects several factors: Beyoncé historically performs at major festivals infrequently and typically commands the largest stages at events explicitly oriented toward her fanbase rather than country music festivals; Stagecoach has maintained a country music focus for nearly two decades; and there is no indication of her planning a country-oriented project or tour during that timeframe. The probability would increase if she announced a country music collaboration, a broader festival tour, or publicly expressed interest in the event. The main uncertainty will be resolved through official Stagecoach 2027 lineup announcements, which typically occur in late 2026 or early 2027, roughly 4-6 months before the festival date.
- ›Beyoncé has never headlined Stagecoach or a primary country music festival, suggesting structural misalignment with her career positioning
- ›Stagecoach's lineup has historically centered on country artists; non-country headliners are exceptional and typically occur only during genre-blending trends
- ›No announced country music project, collaboration, or festival tour from Beyoncé exists as of August 2026
- ›Similar low-probability contracts (Carrie Underwood at 4%, Chris Stapleton at 4%) suggest the market is pricing high uncertainty across multiple artists at this venue
- ›Official Stagecoach 2027 lineup announcements expected late 2026/early 2027 will serve as the primary resolution catalyst
What moved the line
- Aug 24Billie Eilish↑7pp8→15¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Coldplay↑6pp8→14¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 23Olivia Rodrigo↑6pp7→13¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Travis Scott↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22Vampire Weekend↑4pp3→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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