Will Lil Yachty be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
17 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
237 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Chappell Roan be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Chappell Roan be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Chappell Roan
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-CHA
Cluster 2
Will Sabrina Carpenter be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Sabrina Carpenter be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Sabrina Carpenter
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-SAB
Cluster 3
Will Billie Eilish be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Billie Eilish be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Billie Eilish
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-BIL
Cluster 4
Will Olivia Rodrigo be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Olivia Rodrigo be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Olivia Rodrigo
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-OLI
Cluster 5
Will SZA be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will SZA be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: SZA
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-SZA
Cluster 6
Will Tyler, The Creator be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Tyler, The Creator be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Tyler, The Creator
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-TYL
Cluster 7
Will Doja Cat be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Doja Cat be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Doja Cat
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-DOJ
Cluster 8
Will Ice Spice be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Ice Spice be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Ice Spice
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-ICE
Cluster 9
Will Lil Yachty be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Lil Yachty be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Lil Yachty
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-LIL
Cluster 10
Will J. Cole be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will J. Cole be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: J. Cole
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-JCO
Cluster 11
Will Paul McCartney be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Paul McCartney be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Paul McCartney
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-PAU
Cluster 12
Will Bruce Springsteen be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Bruce Springsteen be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Bruce Springsteen
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-BRU
Cluster 13
Will André 3000 be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will André 3000 be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: André 3000
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-AND
Cluster 14
Will Lauryn Hill be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Lauryn Hill be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Lauryn Hill
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-LAU
Cluster 15
Will Elton John be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Elton John be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Elton John
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-ELT
Cluster 16
Will Bad Bunny be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Bad Bunny be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Bad Bunny
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-BAD
Cluster 17
Will Frank Ocean be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027
Will Frank Ocean be on NPR Music Tiny Desk Concert before 2027?: Frank Ocean
KXKXMEDIAGUESTTINYDESK-27-FRA
Analysis
This represents a 12% chance that Lil Yachty will perform on NPR Music's Tiny Desk Concert series before the end of 2026. The low probability reflects that Tiny Desk appearances remain selective, with NPR choosing artists across various genres and career stages. Lil Yachty's inclusion would depend on NPR's editorial decisions and his team's interest in participation. The main factors pushing probability upward would be increased streaming visibility, Grammy recognition, or a strategic pivot toward mainstream acceptance. Conversely, appearances by competing rappers or NPR prioritizing alternative genres could redirect those opportunities. With approximately seven months remaining in 2026, any official announcement or confirmed taping would quickly resolve this question. The relative illiquidity of comparable artist contracts suggests limited trading conviction around hip-hop Tiny Desk predictions generally.
- ›NPR Tiny Desk appearances remain sparse and curated; approximately 3-5 hip-hop/rap artists have performed in recent years across a catalog of 500+ total performances
- ›Lil Yachty's current cultural positioning: streaming relevance, chart performance, and genre trend alignment affect editorial likelihood of selection
- ›No announced tour, album campaign, or media blitz scheduled for Q3-Q4 2026 that would typically precede a coordinated Tiny Desk appearance
- ›Competing artists (Olivia Rodrigo 18%, André 3000 11%) show comparable or higher probabilities, suggesting NPR may prioritize other genres or established legacy artists
- ›Deadline is approximately 7 months away; absence of industry chatter or leaked bookings typically indicates lower near-term likelihood
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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