Will Betis finish in the top 4 in the La Liga season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 8 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
8 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
8 contracts
Closes
Jun 7, 2027
267 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 8 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Athletic Bilbao finish in the top
Cluster 2
Will Atletico Madrid finish in the top
Cluster 3
Will Betis finish in the top 4 in the La Liga season
Will Betis finish in the top 4 in the La Liga season?: Betis
KXLALIGATOP-27TOP4-RBB
Cluster 4
Will Villarreal finish in the top 4 in the La Liga season
Will Villarreal finish in the top 4 in the La Liga season?: Villarreal
KXLALIGATOP-27TOP4-VIL
Cluster 5
Will Alaves finish in the top 6 in the La Liga season
Will Alaves finish in the top 6 in the La Liga season?: Alaves
KXLALIGATOP-27TOP6-ALA
Cluster 6
Will Barcelona finish in the top 6 in the La Liga season
Will Barcelona finish in the top 6 in the La Liga season?: Barcelona
KXLALIGATOP-27TOP6-BAR
Analysis
This contract reflects a 40% probability that Real Betis will finish in La Liga's top four during the 2026-2027 season. The current price suggests uncertainty about whether Betis can sustain competitive performance against established rivals like Real Madrid, Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, and others. Betis's probability sits between Villarreal (30%) and Atletico Madrid (57%), indicating moderate confidence in their ability to compete for Champions League qualification. Key factors include Betis's recent squad stability and investment, their historical performance level, and how other contenders strengthen during the transfer window. The probability will be tested through the season's opening months (September-October), when early results typically signal which teams are genuinely positioned for top-four finishes. Resolution occurs when La Liga concludes in May 2027, at which point final standings will determine the outcome.
- ›Betis's squad depth and injury record relative to Barcelona, Real Madrid, and other top-four contenders
- ›Transfer market activity for Betis and competing clubs during summer 2026
- ›Betis's performance in opening La Liga fixtures (September-November 2026) as a signal of actual competitive strength
- ›Historical volatility: Betis has finished top-four once in the past decade, suggesting structural limitations
- ›Performance in European competitions if qualified, which could impact domestic league focus and player fatigue
What moved the line
- Sep 6Atletico Madrid↓17pp81→64¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Villarreal↓10pp29→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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