Will Democrats win 4 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida
Leader sits at 88% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 58%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
5
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
58¢
8
Spread
30pp
contested
24h volume
$28K
liquid
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
438 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win
Will Democrats win more than 9 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Michigan?: Above 9
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-MID-A9
Will Democrats win exactly 11 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania?: 11
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-PAD-E11
Will Democrats win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania?: 7
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-PAD-E7
Will Democrats win exactly 8 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania?: 8
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-PAD-E8
Will Democrats win exactly 10 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania?: 10
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-PAD-E10
Will Democrats win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Ohio?: 6
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-OHD-E6
Will Democrats win exactly 9 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania?: 9
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-PAD-E9
Will Democrats win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Ohio?: 5
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-OHD-E5
Will Democrats win exactly 9 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Michigan?: 9
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-MID-E9
Will Democrats win exactly 4 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Ohio?: 4
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-OHD-E4
Will Democrats win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Georgia?: 5
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-GAD-E5
Will Democrats win exactly 3 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in North Carolina?: 3
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-NCD-E3
Will Democrats win exactly 6 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Arizona?: 6
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-AZD-E6
Will Democrats win exactly 0 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Alabama?: 0
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-ALD-E0
Will Democrats win exactly 8 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Michigan?: 8
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-MID-E8
Analysis
This market indicates traders believe there is an 89% probability that Democrats will win exactly 4 seats in Florida's 2026 House elections. The high probability reflects Florida's recent electoral patterns, where Republicans have made significant gains in House representation. Key factors driving this assessment include the state's rightward shift in recent cycles, demographic changes that have favored Republicans, and current district-level composition. The main catalyst for this outcome will be the November 2026 midterm elections, which will determine the actual seat count. Traders are pricing in a scenario where Democrats maintain limited House presence in Florida despite their historical strength in the state. Any substantial shifts in voter sentiment, redistricting impacts, or major campaign developments between now and Election Day could move this probability meaningfully.
- ›Florida's House delegation currently leans heavily Republican, with Democrats holding significantly fewer seats than historical norms
- ›Recent election cycles show Republicans gaining ground in Florida House races, suggesting structural advantages for the party
- ›The exact outcome (4 seats) depends on specific district-level competitiveness that could shift with candidate recruitment and turnout variation
- ›Primary elections and candidate quality in individual districts will influence final outcome in close races
- ›National political environment between July 2026 and November 2026 elections could impact voter mobilization in Florida competitive districts
What moved the line
- Aug 2011↑11pp9→20¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 205↑11pp77→88¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 208↑10pp48→58¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 209↓7pp42→35¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 203↑6pp12→18¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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2026 Midterms: Democrats Favored for the House, Senate a Toss-up
The 2026 midterm election market is vibrant, with Democrats heavily favored to retake the House (84¢) but the Senate control is a coin flip (47¢ D vs 52¢ R). Key state-level races like Michigan Senate (D 62¢) and Georgia Senate (D 92¢) show Democratic strength. This divergence between House and Senate expectations creates interesting spread-trading opportunities between the two chambers.
2026 Senate Control Hinges on a Knife's Edge — Republicans at 52¢
The 2026 Senate control contract (CONTROLS-2026) is the most liquid election market across all platforms, with GOP control priced at 52¢ vs. Democrats at 48¢. Key battleground states like Ohio (51¢ D), Michigan (57¢ D), and Texas (50¢ R) are aligning with the national narrative of a highly competitive map.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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