Will Democrats win 4 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Florida
Leader sits at 89% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 71%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
1
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
71¢
1
Spread
18pp
contested
24h volume
$1
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
495 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Democrats win
Will Democrats win more than 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in South Carolina?: Above 2
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-SCD-A2
Will Democrats win exactly 1 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in South Carolina?: 1
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-SCD-E1
Will Democrats win exactly 1 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Louisiana?: 1
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-LAD-E1
Will Democrats win exactly 2 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Alabama?: 2
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-ALD-E2
Will Democrats win exactly 1 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Alabama?: 1
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-ALD-E1
Will Democrats win exactly 0 seats in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Alabama?: 0
KXHOUSEWINSTATE-ALD-E0
Analysis
This market estimates a 33% probability that Democrats will win at least 4 seats in Florida's House elections this November. Florida has 28 House districts, and Democrats currently hold a minority. The probability reflects expectations about national and state-level dynamics: Democratic strength depends partly on whether they maintain momentum in House races overall (currently favored at 81%), while Florida-specific factors include turnout patterns, redistricting effects, and candidate quality in competitive districts. The November 2026 election will definitively resolve this outcome, with primary elections in August providing early signals about competitive races and candidate viability.
- ›Democrats currently hold 7 of 28 Florida House seats; gaining 4 more would represent significant gains in a state trending Republican
- ›National House forecast shows Democrats favored to win overall control at 81%, but Florida may diverge from national patterns due to state demographics and voter composition
- ›Florida redistricting after 2020 census created fewer Democratic-leaning districts; the map's stability since 2022 is set for 2026
- ›August 2026 primaries will reveal candidate recruitment success, funding levels, and early polling in competitive districts
- ›Turnout models and partisan lean in swing districts between Miami-Dade, central Florida, and northern regions will be critical to seat count outcomes
What moved the line
- Jun 200↓4pp12→8¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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