Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 15 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
15 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$815
15 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
166 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
14 clusters across 15 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 6% of their title tokens — “Will Hunter” vs “Will Paul Skenes lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Hunter
Will Hunter Brown lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season?: Hunter Brown
KXLEADERMLBERA-26-HBRO
Will Hunter Greene lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season?: Hunter Greene
KXLEADERMLBERA-26-HGRE
Cluster 2
Will Paul Skenes lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 3
Will Jacob Misiorowski lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Cristopher Sánchez lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 6
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 7
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 8
Will Dylan Cease lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 9
Will Framber Valdez lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 10
Will George Kirby lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 11
Will Cole Ragans lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 12
Will Jesús Luzardo lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 13
Will Blake Snell lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 14
Will Logan Gilbert lead Pro Baseball in earned run average (ERA) for the 2026 regular season
Analysis
This market estimates a 5% chance that Yoshinobu Yamamoto will post the lowest earned run average among all Major League Baseball pitchers during the 2026 regular season. The probability reflects Yamamoto's proven elite pitching ability balanced against the difficulty of leading the entire league in ERA, where dozens of qualified starters compete. Factors driving this low probability include the depth of starting pitching talent available, with multiple Hall-of-Fame-caliber competitors, and the inherent variability in ERA caused by defense, ballpark effects, and health over a full season. The main catalyst will be Yamamoto's actual statistical performance once the 2026 regular season concludes in late September or early October, when final ERA leaders are calculated. Yamamoto's 2025 season performance and any injuries sustained before or during 2026 could shift market expectations significantly beforehand.
- ›Yamamoto's career ERA through 2025 and his 2026 season-to-date statistics relative to other top pitchers
- ›The number of qualified starting pitchers posting sub-3.00 ERAs during the 2026 regular season and how clustered elite performance becomes
- ›Injury status or decline of competing elite pitchers like Max Scherzer, Juan Soto's pitching peers, or other established ERA leaders
- ›Park effects and defensive support behind Yamamoto versus leading competitors throughout the 2026 season
- ›Total innings pitched by Yamamoto versus other contenders, as durability and workload affect final ERA calculations
What moved the line
- May 6Shohei Ohtani↑13pp6→19¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 2 min ago.