Will the minimum temperature be >52° on Apr 22, 2026

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the minimum temperature on April 22, 2026 will exceed 52°F at a specified location. The 61% probability suggests traders view this outcome as more likely than not, based on historical temperature patterns for late April and current climate forecasts. Temperature outcomes for a specific date depend heavily on seasonal weather patterns—spring conditions in the target region typically show warming trends, but late-season cold snaps remain possible. The main drivers of this probability are historical April temperature distributions for the location and any available medium-range weather models as April 22 approaches. The critical resolution occurs on April 22, 2026 itself, when the actual minimum temperature will be recorded and compared against the 52°F threshold. Until then, atmospheric data and seasonal forecasts will likely shift the probability as spring weather patterns develop.

• ›Historical minimum temperatures for April 22 in the target location: frequency of readings above 52°F establishes baseline expectations
• ›Current seasonal forecast anomalies: whether spring 2026 is tracking warmer or cooler than typical for the region
• ›Distance to resolution date: April 22 is approximately 10.5 months away, limiting predictive precision; near-term weather signals will narrow uncertainty
• ›Geographic location specificity: coastal vs. inland, elevation, and regional climate zone determine temperature patterns
• ›Presence of bound contracts on competing outcomes: the 28% runner-up price suggests meaningful probability mass on temperatures at or below 52°F

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds