Will the minimum temperature be <60° on Apr 22, 2026

Analysis

This contract reflects the probability that the minimum temperature in a specified location will fall between 67–68°F on May 5, 2026, currently priced at 32%. The leading outcome suggests traders expect temperatures in the upper 60s rather than higher or lower ranges. Temperature forecasts depend heavily on seasonal weather patterns, atmospheric pressure systems, and any unusual climate events in the weeks leading up to May 5. The primary driver of current odds is the typical late-spring climate for the region, though any significant weather anomalies or shifts in meteorological forecasts as the date approaches could shift probabilities across the temperature bands. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the actual temperature reading on May 5, 2026, though intermediate forecast updates from national weather services in late April and early May will likely move prices before final settlement.

• ›Historical average minimum temperatures for this location on May 5 and typical late-spring variability
• ›Current weather forecasting models and their ensemble consensus 10–15 days before the resolution date
• ›Atmospheric patterns (jet stream position, pressure systems) that could deliver cooler or warmer air masses to the region
• ›Whether the competing outcomes (69–70°F at 30%, 65–66°F at 15%) reflect genuine forecast disagreement or measurement uncertainty
• ›Trading volume concentration: the leading contract has minimal 24-hour volume ($7), suggesting limited recent conviction or price discovery

How we compute these odds