Will the minimum temperature be <60° on Apr 22, 2026
Leader sits at 33% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 17%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
77° or above
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
17¢
75° to 76°
Spread
16pp
contested
24h volume
$234
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum temperature
Will the minimum temperature be >76° on Jun 26, 2026?: 77° or above
KXLOWTSATX-26JUN26-T76
Will the minimum temperature be 73-74° on Jun 26, 2026?: 73° to 74°
KXLOWTSATX-26JUN26-B73.5
Will the minimum temperature be 75-76° on Jun 26, 2026?: 75° to 76°
KXLOWTSATX-26JUN26-B75.5
Analysis
This contract reflects the probability that the minimum temperature in a specified location will fall between 67–68°F on May 5, 2026, currently priced at 32%. The leading outcome suggests traders expect temperatures in the upper 60s rather than higher or lower ranges. Temperature forecasts depend heavily on seasonal weather patterns, atmospheric pressure systems, and any unusual climate events in the weeks leading up to May 5. The primary driver of current odds is the typical late-spring climate for the region, though any significant weather anomalies or shifts in meteorological forecasts as the date approaches could shift probabilities across the temperature bands. The main catalyst for resolving uncertainty will be the actual temperature reading on May 5, 2026, though intermediate forecast updates from national weather services in late April and early May will likely move prices before final settlement.
- ›Historical average minimum temperatures for this location on May 5 and typical late-spring variability
- ›Current weather forecasting models and their ensemble consensus 10–15 days before the resolution date
- ›Atmospheric patterns (jet stream position, pressure systems) that could deliver cooler or warmer air masses to the region
- ›Whether the competing outcomes (69–70°F at 30%, 65–66°F at 15%) reflect genuine forecast disagreement or measurement uncertainty
- ›Trading volume concentration: the leading contract has minimal 24-hour volume ($7), suggesting limited recent conviction or price discovery
Recently closed in climate
- Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 84.2last 89% · 1d
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 3last 68% · 7d
- Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on recordlast 85% · 7d
- 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 3rd hottestlast 96% · 14d
- 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 4th or lowerlast 97% · 44d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.